ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 6:41 AM EDT620
FXUS61 KILN 281041
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A chance for rain showers will be observed today ahead of a cold
front that drops drops south through the area tonight. After today's
chance, dry conditions remain favored through the weekend into early
next week. Below normal temperatures continue through the end of the
work week and into the weekend. A warming trend develops late this
weekend into the beginning of next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Longwave H5 trough remains over much of the eastern CONUS, placing
the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern. An embedded shortwave
over the western Great Lakes will dig southeast into the upper Ohio
Valley. An associated surface cold front will settle south, into the
northern FA this evening and through the CWA overnight.
Scattered showers are expected to develop with this forcing, but the
timing of the front will be unfavorable for widespread QPF. Forecast
soundings show some rather marginal instability - so an embedded
thunderstorm is possible. Best rain threat will be this afternoon
and very early evening across the far northern counties.
Temperatures remain below normal with highs from the lower 70s north
to near 80 south. An axis of higher surface dewpoints will advect
into the area ahead of the front - where Td/s increase to the upper
50s. Across the southeast with good mixing have lowered dewpoints
into the mid and upper 40s for a period this aftn. This may result in
min relative humid values around 30 percent with upper 20 percent
values possible.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Longwave H5 trough remains over much of the eastern CONUS, placing
the Ohio Valley in a northwest flow pattern. An embedded shortwave
to dig southeast into the upper Ohio Valley. An associated surface
cold front settles south, into the northern FA this evening and
through the CWA overnight. With the front pushing through during the
overnight hours, a few rain showers will be possible - especially
during the evening hours. With an increase dewpoints and some
increased cloud coverage, lows will only dip into the lower to middle
50s. Clouds scattered out overnight - combined with a light low
level post frontal flow will likely result in patchy fog development.
Surface high pressure builds into the Great Lakes Friday. Any fog
that develops will quickly improve leaving partly sunny sky
conditions. Temperatures will be 7-10 degrees below normal with highs
from near 70 north to near 80 south.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
On Friday evening, a closed upper low will be centered over southern
Quebec, with broad troughing remaining in place across much of the
eastern CONUS. Over the course of the extended forecast period,
lower heights will remain in place over the northeastern CONUS, with
a second trough developing upstream of the Great Lakes by the middle
of the week. At the surface, high pressure will keep the pattern
fairly dry over the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into the
early part of the week.
On Saturday and Sunday, precipitable water values are forecast to be
around a half inch -- a dry air mass that will support a reasonable
amount of mixing during the afternoon hours. Moisture will increase
somewhat by the middle of the week. There are signs, though
inconsistent from model to model and run to run, of a more
pronounced return flow of moisture from the south by Tuesday or
Wednesday -- ahead of the broader trough developing upstream. This
forecast will carry some low-end precipitation chances on Tuesday
and Wednesday.
In terms of temperatures, a gradual warming trend is expected from
Saturday through Wednesday. Saturday will remain about 5-10 degrees
below normal, with highs in the lower to upper 70s. By Monday,
temperatures will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with similar
values expected Tuesday and Wednesday. These values are closer to
normal for late August and early September, though still perhaps a
couple degrees on the cool side of normal.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow aloft with an embedded shortwave dropping south east
thru the Great Lakes today. Expect scattered showers to spread in
from the northwest ahead of this shortwave this morning into the
afternoon. Airmass is starting out dry in the low levels - so showers
will generally decrease in coverage as they head southeast and
initially will fall from a mid deck with minimal impact on
visibilities. Have tempo groups for these showers across the north
with prob30 across the southern Taf sites.
Winds will pick up during the day to around 10 knots. Isolated wind
gusts, especially with shower activity mainly during the afternoon
and into early evening hours.
Surface cold front sags south thru the TAF sites tonight. Clouds
decrease overnight with a signal for fog potential. Have limited
mention to MVFR vsby restrictions at KCVG and KLCK with IFR
restrictions at KLUK and KILN. Fog quickly improves after sunrise
Friday with VFR conditions during the day.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Hatzos
AVIATION...AR
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 6:41 AM EDT---------------
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