PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 1:34 PM CDT320
FXUS63 KPAH 281834
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue
through the holiday weekend.
- Rain shower chances begin to increase Monday night while a
greater risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Another cool blast with temperatures at least 10 degrees below
normal arrives late next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
An upper level trough will push east of the FA on Friday to end the
week allowing for high temperatures to moderate back into the mid
80s. While a backdoor frontal boundary will push south, the lack of
moisture with inverted-v thermal profiles will only result in some
mid-level clouds. Dry and tranquil weather conditions continue
through the weekend as a 1023 mb sfc high pressure builds over
the Ohio Valley. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid
80s, still about 3 to 5 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Meanwhile, low temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper 50s with low humidity levels.
Ample dry weather along with below normal temperatures will prevail
through Labor Day as a 500 mb shortwave trough digs south of the
Dakotas towards the FA by Monday night into Tuesday. Both the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF show a cold front moving through in the
Tuesday to Wednesday period as there is currently uncertainty with
the timing. The NBM is maxed out at only 20-30% for PoPs, but
this is due to a large model ensemble spread. The thermodynamics
are not terribly concerning as the instability looks to be
modest at best while poor shear and lapse rates are progged.
Models then show a highly amplified synoptic flow to end the
week as a 500 mb longwave trough digs down over the eastern
CONUS. Recent runs of the GFS/ECMWF show 850 mb temperatures
around 5C while both the GEFS/EPS are closer to 10C that would
be similar to the current cool down.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025
VFR conditions prevail across the terminals with SCT/BKN high-
level clouds. FEW/SCT mid-level clouds around 7-10 kft AGL will
begin to build in from the northeast tonight as a backdoor front
pushes south on Friday. Cannot entirely rule out patchy fog in
the vicinity of KMVN/KCGI, but confidence is too low to include
TAF mention. Calm winds tonight turn northerly around 3-4 kts
Friday morning.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DW
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 28, 1:34 PM CDT---------------
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