NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 19, 4:00 PM CDT933
WTNT41 KNHC 192036
TCDAT1
Tropical Storm Alberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
400 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024
There hasn't been much additional data to help assess the structure
of Alberto since the Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
departed the system a few hours ago. However, recent satellite
images and data from NOAA buoy 42055 suggest that the center may
have re-formed a bit to the southwest since this morning. Another
reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system
later this evening. For now, the maximum winds remain 35 kt.
Because of the re-formation of the center, the recent motion has
been west-southwestward, or 250/8 kt. However, Alberto is expected
to resume a westward motion and speed up over the next 24 hours as
a mid-level ridge over the eastern U.S. builds westward. The track
guidance is in good agreement that Alberto's center will reach the
coast of Mexico early Thursday, and the NHC track forecast is close
to a blend of the TVCA and HCCA models. Some slight strengthening
is still possible through tonight while Alberto remains over water,
and the NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak intensity of
about 40 kt. The circulation could dissipate over the mountains of
Mexico as soon as 24 hours from now, but for continuity a 24-hour
forecast is provided with dissipation shown at 36 hours.
More importantly, because of Alberto's large size, it will continue
to produce heavy rains, moderate coastal flooding, and
tropical-storm-force winds across portions of southern Texas and
northeastern Mexico regardless of its exact track. It is worth
noting that the official wind speed probabilities are likely
underestimating the chances of tropical-storm-force winds along the
Texas coast because of the unusually large and asymmetric area of
strong winds on the northern side of the circulation.
Key Messages:
1. Users are reminded not to focus on the exact forecast track of
this system. Alberto is very large with rainfall, coastal flooding,
and wind impacts occuring far from the center along the coasts of
Texas and northeastern Mexico.
2. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Alberto will impact
large regions of Central America, north across northeastern Mexico
and into South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding.
Life-threatening flooding and mudslides are likely in and near areas
of higher terrain across the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon,
and Tamaulipas, including the cities of Monterrey and Ciudad
Victoria.
3. Moderate coastal flooding is likely along much of the Texas
Coast through Thursday.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected today along portions of
the Texas coast south of San Luis Pass and along portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico within the Tropical Storm Warning area.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 21.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 97.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 22.1N 100.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Source:
NHC issues Tropical Cyclone Discussion (TCD) at Jun 19, 4:00 PM CDT---------------
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