IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:21 AM EDT762
FXUS63 KIWX 260621
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
221 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 20-30% chance of lake effect rain shower today.
- Dangerous waves and rip currents continue today at Berrien
and La Porte County beaches.
- Another dose of cool air arrives with a 30-60% chance of
showers Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Broad, cyclonic flow continues from an upper-level low over James
Bay. Look for additional lake effect showers this morning
through midday. A compact upper-level vort max is digging
southeast through central Lake Michigan this morning. This
forcing ought to enhance lake effect rain showers through the
next several hours. Ample equilibrium levels and steep low-
level lapse rates remain in play though cold air advection is
weakening as flow becomes parallel to the 850-mb isotherms. This
weakened CAA also allowed me to bump temperatures slightly when
compared to Monday. We'll remain below normal, but highs in the
70s were common along the US-24 corridor and ought to be more
common this afternoon. Lake effect shuts off by this evening has
high pressure noses in briefly from the Central Plains.
High pressure Wednesday is displaced Thursday as another cold front
drops in from the Canadian Prairie. The greatest moisture
convergence if over the eastern Great Lakes which decreases the local
forecast confidence for the coverage of showers with this front.
Nonetheless, there is a 30-60% chance of showers starting midday
Thursday, with the greatest POPs along the Michigan stateline.
Behind the front, another dose of fall temperatures through at least
Saturday before heights rise and warm air advection resumes. The
next weather system arrives near midweek.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 107 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Lake effect showers persist early this morning downwind of Lake
Michigan in Berrien, Cass [MI], and St Joesph [IN] counties as
low level moisture increases. KSBN will likely get in on some
scattered showers between now and 12Z with potential for MVFR
visibilities and ceilings. Winds will be coming from the WNW/NW
today with gusts up to 20 kts at KSBN later this afternoon. As
northwest winds increase after daybreak and lake effect showers
push inland later today, KFWA could get a shower or two after
18Z but have opted to keep the TAFs dry for now. Skies will vary
between SCT to BKN with VFR ceilings expected throughout the
day (except under any heavier showers).
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for INZ103.
OH...None.
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ043-
046.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Brown
AVIATION...Johnson
Source:
IWX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:21 AM EDT---------------
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