PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:22 AM CDT647
FXUS63 KPAH 260722
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
222 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Below normal temperatures and low humidity will continue this
week on through the holiday weekend.
- Showers are possible across southeast Missouri, southwest
Illinois and portions of west Kentucky Thursday.
- Dry conditions are likely for the Labor Day weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Tue Aug 26 2025
Surface high pressure to our northwest today will gradually
shift southeast, becoming centered over the PAH forecast area
Wednesday, then over then central Atlantic Coast Thursday. Our
area will remain dry with temperatures around 10 degrees below
normal through Wednesday evening.
By late Wednesday night, models show an upper level trof
extending from the Great Lakes region into the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys. The model blend generates
QPF in southeast Missouri and potentially into southwest
Illinois and portions of west Kentucky late Wednesday night and
especially Thursday. The greatest chances for showers will be
in the Ozark Foothills (60-70%). Based on some individual model
solutions, precipitation chances could stay mainly southwest of
the PAH forecast area where there is better moisture. Some
adjustments to the overall rain chances are likely as we get
closer to mid week as we see if models come into better
agreement and affect the model blend.
After the passage of the upper trof, another surface high will
be developing over the Great Lakes Region late in the week,
remaining north of our region through the holiday weekend.
Circulation around the high will give our region northeast to
easterly flow, keeping dry air flowing into our area, and most
likely keeping the forecast dry. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer Friday through Monday but still below normal, and
humidity will remain low with dew points mostly in the 50s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon Aug 25 2025
VFR conditions are more likely than not through the overnight.
Patchy ground fog at more susceptible sites like MVN and CGI
will be possible but widespread fog appears unlikely.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RST
AVIATION...JGG
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 2:22 AM CDT---------------
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