JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 1:03 PM EDT665
FXUS63 KJKL 271703
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
103 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cool and dry air mass persists through the remainder of the
work week.
- Temperatures warm this weekend, with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s on Sunday.
- A low chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the
forecast for Sunday and Monday afternoons.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 103 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
Mid day obs are blended into the forecast without substantive
changes.
UPDATE Issued at 947 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
Only minor updates were made to consider fog dissipating this
morning and latest model guidance on cu this this afternoon and
cirrus tonight.
UPDATE Issued at 631 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
There are no changes to the forecast. Hourly temperatures were
update through mid-morning based on the latest observations.
KJKL has set a new record low temperature already, and KLOZ has
been threatening their daily record low at times over the last
hour.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 241 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
Surface high pressure continues to move over the area this
morning, persisting over the area through Thursday. Aloft, the
region will lie just upstream of a longwave trough axis through
Thursday afternoon, with disturbances rotating through the
energetic northwesterly cyclonic flow aloft.
Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool by late August
standards, with highs today primarily in the mid-70s despite
nearly full sun. Temperatures moderate to the upper 70s to around
80 degrees Thursday with weak warm advection and some high clouds
passing across the region. There will also be better mixing in
the afternoon with a weak upper disturbance passing across the
area.
Lows tonight will be similar to the previous few nights, with
mid-40s in the coolest locations to lower 50s primarily toward the
ridges.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 256 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
Models remain in agreement in eastern Kentucky remaining largely
within cyclonic flow aloft well into next week, with disturbances
continuing to pass across the area from the west and northwest,
and the mid-latitude jet stream unusually far south across the
Southeast and Deep South.
After a slightly warmer day Friday with upper 70s to lower 80s for
highs, a reinforcing cold front will move into the area from the
north and lower temperatures back into the mid 70s for Saturday.
Temperatures then begin slowly moderating upwards again Sunday
into next week. Lows will generally follow this same trend, with a
gradual moderation upwards, but remaining generally below normal.
Models are in good agreement in suggesting increasing easterly
surface flow developing over the Tennessee and southern Ohio
Valley regions to the south of surface high pressure over the
Great Lakes this weekend into next week. This may allow for some
Atlantic moisture to creep west into the region, with eastern
Kentucky on the northern fringes of this moisture advection. Have
stuck with the NBM which shows slight chances of showers and
thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday afternoons, but the best
chances will stay primarily south and east of the area.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 719 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all terminals. Valley fog may become an issue late in
the period at KSME and KLOZ with reductions to MVFR or lower,
though confidence is too low to put in the TAF at this time. Winds
will be light and variable or from the north at around 5 kts or
less.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...CMC
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 27, 1:03 PM EDT---------------
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