BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:03 AM EDT416
FXUS61 KBOX 240603
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
203 AM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
The risk for dangerous rip currents will remain elevated
through Sunday in the wake of Erin. Cooler and dry through the
weekend. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Monday ahead of
a cold front. Then trending drier and cooler, with temperatures
falling below the climatological normal Tuesday through the
week, as an area of high pressure builds in from the west.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Key Messages:
* High Surf Advisory expires this evening. Dangerous Rip
currents remain through the weekend.
High surf comes to an end this evening, but dangerous rip
currents remain a significant threat for beachgoers through the
weekend.
Other than rough waters, today remains dry and breezy.
Afternoon highs in the low 80s across southern New England, with
overnight temperatures dropping to near 60 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Another mostly quiet day ahead of the next chance for
showers/storms
Sunday will likely be a few degrees cooler than today, with
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Also expecting another day of
breezy southerly winds, with gusts in the afternoon up to 25
mph at times. Most of southern New England should remain dry
through Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front from the west,
but there is a small change for a spot shower or two Sunday
evening across portions of the far northwestern interior.
Dangerous rip currents should slowly decrease starting Sunday
evening as waves begin to calm.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Key Messages:
* Warm, muggy, with showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder
on Monday, otherwise a dry week ahead as high pressure builds
in and brings slightly below normal temperatures.
We are heading into the last full week of August, hard to
believe how quickly the warmer months are zipping by. Will kick
off the week with seasonably warm and humid conditions on Monday
with showers and rumbles of thunder. Drying and cooling
conditions follows on Tuesday with a mostly dry stretch of days
ahead. Will need to keep an eye out on Thursday to Friday time
frame as a mid-level shortwave moves down from the northwest,
PWATs are arguably minimal so not expecting anything more than a
spot shower at best. Otherwise, will have an area of high
pressure in control through the week and into next weekend.
A weak area of low pressure passes through the coastal waters
early Monday morning, increasing the chances for rain mainly for
eastern coastal Massachusetts. In addition, a cold front slowly
moves across southern New England late in the afternoon to
early evening, given the time of day, storm development may be
limited due to the earlier sunset/ending of day time heating.
That said, there are ingredients there for thunderstorms, though
the coverage would more than likely be isolated. No concerns
with excessive rainfall either as PWATs are less than 1.5" which
is near normal for late August.
A noticeable chance to the airmass on Tuesday, which will
remain with us through the week. Guidance remains consistent
with temperatures aloft at 850mb drop between +8C and +12C, this
will yield day time highs in the lower to middle 70s and
nightly lows in the 50s. These temperatures are slightly below
the normal for late August, in which highs range from the upper
70s to lower 80, and lows in the low to middle 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
06z Update...
Today...High confidence.
Light S/SW winds in the morning increasing to around 10-12 kts,
with occasional gusts up to 20 kts for the afternoon. SCT- BKN
mid-level clouds. Low chance for an isolated shower in western
MA in the afternoon.
Sunday Night...High Confidence.
VFR. S/SE winds 5-10 kts. Potential for MVFR cigs developing
after 06z. Showers possible for the Cape/Islands terminals
overnight.
Monday...High Confidence in trends.
Any MVFR cigs from overnight, improve to VFR in the morning.
Showers and thunderstorms possible in afternoon. SW winds.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night: VFR.
Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.
Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.
Thursday: VFR. Breezy.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Sunday...High confidence.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for southern coastal
areas, including the Cape and Islands. Waves will continue to
decrease down to 5-7 ft by the evening hours. Rip currents will
stay a significant concern with the elevated surf through at
least Sunday. High Surf Advisories continue through this
evening.
Small Craft Advisories in effect for the lingering high seas
will gradually end this weekend, taking longest across the outer
coastal waters.
Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...
Monday Night through Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.
Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for MAZ007-019>024.
RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this
evening for RIZ006>008.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250-
254>256.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ251.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Dooley/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Dooley
AVIATION...McMinn/Mensch/FT
MARINE...Dooley/McMinn
Source:
BOX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 24, 2:03 AM EDT----------------
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