JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:58 PM EDT397
FXUS63 KJKL 261758
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
158 PM EDT Tue Aug 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cool and dry air mass persists through the remainder of the
work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
Made some changes to the latest weather grids to adjust for
latest fog coverage across the Big Sandy and Cumberland areas.
Also added some cloud cover for this afternoon to account for a
mid-level CU deck thats anticipated to develop later. In addition
to the above edits the temperature, wind and other latest
operational data was incorporated into the latest forecast.
UPDATE Issued at 724 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
The forecast is on track with just minor changes to the hourly
temperature forecast and sky cover through this morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
A sharp upper trough axis moves east from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic through Wednesday morning, with a reinforcing shot
of unseasonably cooler air associated with surface high pressure diving
southeast across eastern Kentucky. Shortwave ridging then moves
across the Ohio Valley to end the short term period Wednesday
afternoon, with the center of the surface high at that time over
the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys.
The forecast challenges primarily involve cloud cover and
temperatures (both air and dew point) for the short term period.
Models suggest decent instability and sufficient moisture for
scattered to numerous cumulus development from midday through
early this evening as the upper approaches from the west, with
resultant mixing resulting in northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph.
These clouds diminish this evening with the loss of daytime
heating, with mostly clear skies Wednesday with shortwave ridging.
Unseasonably low temperatures will continue through the short term,
with highs in the lower to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to
lower 50s. These highs may flirt with daily record low maximum
temperatures both today and Wednesday, which at London and Jackson
are in the 70 to 71 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
Cool and dry weather most likely persists through the period, with
a gradual moderation toward normal to end the period.
Main areas of focus in the long-term involve an upper trough and
surface cold front passage late Thursday or Thursday night, then
increasing uncertainty regarding the upper pattern for Labor Day
weekend into the first half of next week.
Main uncertainty involves the evolution of a deep upper low over
the Northeast to end the week, and whether this system lingers
over the region and moves east and away from the region. This will
have an impact on available moisture this weekend into early next
week.
Temperatures gradually warm each day through the long-term period,
possibly reaching near normal for highs in the lower 80s to end
the period Labor Day Monday. Low chances for rain remain Sunday
night, but mentionable chances (15 percent of greater) are more
confined to southeast Kentucky.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals. A mid-level cumulus field has developed as expected,
with most sites BKN040-BKN060. This cloud deck should lift by
00-01Z Wednesday. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts are possible this
afternoon, with occasional gusts near 15 kts. Winds will
gradually diminish this evening between 00z and 03z. Valley fog
can be expected again tonight, but its currently anticipated to
stay largely confined to the river valleys. Model soundings across
all terminal airfields suggested low level winds will stay to
elevated overnight for any visibility reductions below 7 miles.
Fog should mix out of the area by 13-14Z Wednesday morning.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GINNICK
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GINNICK
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 26, 1:58 PM EDT---------------
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