JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 8:05 PM EDT370
FXUS63 KJKL 260005 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
805 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cool and dry air mass persist through the remainder of the
work week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 745 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
23Z sfc analysis shows high pressure now firmly in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the
winds and clear the skies after having brought a cooler and much
drier air mass to the region. Currently, temperatures are running
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Meanwhile, amid west-northwest
winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the upper 40s to
low 50s. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs
and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids, as well as tweaking a few of
the point lows. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 243 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
Mid-level clouds currently occupy the skies across Eastern Kentucky,
as cooler, drier air continues to work into the area from the
northwest. At current, dew points have begun dropping into the upper
40s to low 50s across the state. In Eastern Kentucky, a dew point of
49 was observed at Big-Sandy Airport, 46 at Somerset, 45 at Jackson
and London, and 43 at Morehead. Ridge-Valley splits in low
temperatures are expected this evening, with higher elevated thermal
belt ridge locations likely dropping into the low 50s, and valley
locations dropping into the mid to upper 40s. Coldest locations may
flirt with lower 40s. River valley fog is expected to develop this
evening, though most favorable across extreme Eastern Kentucky,
toward the WV boarder.
Tuesday, an upper-level trough is modeled over Southern Quebec, with
a trough axis extending south and west into the Upper Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley. Northwest winds will usher in cooler air through
the day, with temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Later Tuesday, the
trough axis is modeled to have moved east of the state, leading to
rising heights as an approaching high pressure from the Mid-
Mississippi Valley moves closer to Eastern Kentucky. Light winds and
clearing skies will once again create a favorable set up for valley
fog and ridge-valley temperature spits. With high pressure closer to
the area lighter surface winds are anticipated, a main difference
from Monday night. Overnight lows in the lower 50s along ridges,
and mid to upper 40s in valleys are anticipated. Coldest locations
will likely see lower 40s. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees
below normal, with some locations approaching or breaking record
lows.
We're entering the time of year where dew points play a huge role in
the forecast, where the NBM has shown repeated instances of
struggling with dew point drop offs during the afternoon hours.
Surrounding offices in coordination with ours at JKL have adjusted
afternoon dewpoints towards the 10th percentile of the NBM or lower.
Across Eastern Kentucky, such edits were made over the next
several days using a blend of the latest raw model guidance, some
of which was more aggressive/lower than the NBM's 5th percentile.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 329 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
The long-term period opens Wednesday morning with a full-latitude
500 hPa trough over Eastern North America. Embedded shortwave
ridging is noted upstream from the Ozarks to Southern Quebec,
while a trailing shortwave trough extends from the Hudson Bay to
the Upper Midwest. At the surface, an ~1025 mb surface high is
centered over the Lower Ohio Valley. Far to the north, an ~988 mb
surface low is situated northeast of Labrador, while an
associated cold front trails back to a weak wave of low pressure
near James Bay and from there westward into the Prairie Provinces.
Heights will rise over the Eastern Kentucky Coalfields through
early Wednesday afternoon with the surface high subsequently
cresting over our forecast area during the mid to late afternoon.
Heights then subside Wednesday night and Thursday, leading to a
breakdown of the surface high while the aforementioned shortwave
trough drops in from the north. With that trough, a cold front
will be dropping south through the Great Lakes on Thursday and
eventually south of the Ohio River on Friday before stalling over
or south of the JKL CWA on Saturday. Models agree that the
lingering upper-level trough will fill and lift out over the area
Labor Day weekend, but model spread increases substantially with
various guidance showing renewed troughing, an upper-level low,
or a split-flow regime following for early next week.
In terms of sensible weather, dry and cool conditions are
expected to persist Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a gradual
warming and moistening trend over the Labor Day weekend. Daily
high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s on Wednesday,
rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s for the weekend. Forecast
nighttime lows will range from the mid-40s to mid-50s on Wednesday
night, moderating to mainly the 50s over the weekend. There is
little to no chance of rain through the remainder of the workweek.
Rain chances may return to the forecast early next week, but the
official forecast remains dry for now. Fog is likely to form in
the favored river valley locales each night.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 805 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period at all
terminals with the exception perhaps of KSME, which may briefly
fall into MVFR vis reductions due to valley fog developing after
10Z tonight. While the potential for fog is greatest in the far
southeast of KY, model soundings suggest that near surface winds
will remain just elevated enough to likely mitigate fog
development at most TAF sites. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph
will taper off to light and variable by mid evening and stay that
way through the rest of the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK/GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 25, 8:05 PM EDT---------------
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