Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1408 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY [watch probability: 80%]158
ACUS11 KWNS 251643
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 251643
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-251815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1408
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1143 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024
Areas affected...central/southern Illinois into western Indiana
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 251643Z - 251815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...There may be an increased severe weather threat early this
afternoon across central/southern Illinois and far western Indiana
DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective coverage has started across
the western portion of a remnant MCS across central/west-central
Illinois. Ahead of this activity, clear skies have permitted strong
heating with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This yields over 3000
J/kg MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis shows decreasing inhibition across
Illinois with an increasing cumulus field across Missouri.
Therefore, with some additional heating, expect inhibition to erode
and some increasing intensity of ongoing storms across central
Illinois. The hot and moist airmass should support a damaging wind
threat as this cluster of storms moves southeast through the
afternoon.
The threat should persist to the eastern extent of the greater
heating/low-level moisture advection which is forecast somewhere
between Terre Haute and Indianapolis and eventually approach the
Ohio River by evening.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...
LAT...LON 40788842 40748739 40348646 40008608 39578588 38868596
38368640 37988709 37878813 38348902 39228991 40119019
40439017 40648982 40788842
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1408 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY [watch probability: 80%]---------------
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