CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 4:05 PM EDT455
FXUS61 KCLE 202005
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
405 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure builds in Friday and Saturday. A strong cold
front comes through Saturday night. Cooler than normal
conditions with lake effect showers expected early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front has cleared the region and continue to be socked in with
low level clouds that are slow to lift and erode southward through
southern Michigan. Meanwhile, Hurricane Erin, making its northward
track in the Atlantic, will stay well away from our area, but will
play a role in tightening the pressure gradient over the southern
Great Lakes. This will bring modest wind increases out of the
northeast tonight through Thursday afternoon before easing again
later Thursday into Thursday evening. This will be due to the
distance between our area and the tropical system increases again as
it tracks northeastward while picking up forward speed. Mid and
upper levels will clear out Thursday into Thursday night while
enough low level moisture lingers away form the lakeshore and the
prevailing northeasterly flow for scattered-broken clouds, but the
forecast is largely dry beyond tonight. Temperatures remain slightly
cool for this type of northeasterly wind with highs in the 70s again
on Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A deep, closed upper level low will dive southeastward through the
Canadian prairies into the end of the week/weekend with an
associated low pressure system at the surface. A lingering surface
trough west of the Appalachians renews POPs for the eastern CWA
Saturday while the cold front from the aforementioned system
approaches from the northwest. High pressure that will have resided
briefly over the southern Great Lakes will get squeezed out of the
region. This will be a fairly strong cold front coming through,
likely in the Saturday night time frame that will dictate more early
fall type weather for the long term portion of the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upon frontal passage, will be entering an environment with cold
air advection across the Great Lakes with a Canadian airmass
spilling into the region, and 850mb temperatures down well into
the single digits. Northerly winds and likely lake effect
showers due to the high difference between the 850mb
temperatures and the lake water surface temperatures will be the
story for early next week. Will not come out of the 60s for
portions of the eastern CWA as a result, low to mid 70s westward
into northwest Ohio.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Aloft, NW'erly to N'erly flow is expected over our region
through 18Z/Thurs as a trough exits E'ward and a ridge builds
slowly from the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a trough
axis lingers in vicinity of western PA and WV as a ridge builds
slowly from the northwestern Great Lakes. Our regional surface
winds will veer gradually from NW'erly to NE'erly and trend
around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period.
Widespread low clouds with ceilings varying between primarily
500 ft and 3000 ft AGL are expected through the TAF period.
Diurnal warming and sufficient destabilization of a moist boundary
layer, and weak lake-induced instability over ~76F Lake Erie, should
allow scattered rain showers with brief MVFR/IFR visibility to occur
over the lake and across much of northern OH and NW PA through
~22Z/Wed. Note: sufficient nocturnal cooling amidst lingering low-
level moisture should permit the development of widespread IFR
ceilings, localized LIFR ceilings, and mist with MVFR/IFR
visibility, especially east of I-71, between ~04Z/Thurs and
~14Z/Thurs.
Outlook...Isolated showers with non-VFR possible in far-NE OH
and NW PA Thursday afternoon through early evening. Non-VFR
possible this Saturday afternoon through Monday due to isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement are in effect
from 6 PM today until 11 PM Thursday from Reno Beach to
Conneaut and from 6 PM today to 8 PM EDT Thursday from Conneaut
to Ripley. A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Thursday as a
ridge attempts to build from the northwestern Great Lakes. The
interaction between the trough and ridge will allow N'erly to
NE'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots to freshen to 15 to 20
knots by sunset this evening and waves will build to as large as
2 to 4 feet. Later this evening through about midday Thursday,
mainly NE'erly winds around 15 to 22 knots and waves as large as
3 to 6 feet are expected. During Thursday afternoon through
evening, NE'erly winds ease gradually to 10 to 15 knots and
waves subside gradually to 3 feet or less by midnight Friday
morning.
On Friday through Saturday, the ridge affects Lake Erie as the
ridge's core moves from the northwestern Great Lakes toward the
New England to Mid-Atlantic seaboard. NE'erly to E'erly winds
around 5 to 15 knots early Friday morning become variable around
5 to 10 knots during the daylight hours of Friday and then
primarily S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots Friday night
through Saturday as waves remain 3 feet or less. A cold front
sweeps E'ward across Lake Erie Saturday night and causes SW'erly
winds around 5 to 15 knots to veer to W'erly as waves remain 3
feet or less. Behind the front, a trough lingers over Lake Erie
through Monday. Winds should vary between SW'erly and NW'erly
around 5 to 15 knots and waves should remain 3 feet or less.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for OHZ007-
009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ143>148.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 20, 4:05 PM EDT---------------
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