PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 8:15 PM EDT633
FXUS61 KPBZ 190015
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
815 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mostly dry weather before the next
disturbance arrives on Wednesday. Temperatures will be on the
increase through the week. A new trough will impact the region
this weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry weather continues tonight
- Isolated river valley fog potential overnight
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight as it remains
centered to our NE. Some late night stratus is possible in SE
flow near and east of the ridges, though most of the area will
only see cirrus clouds tonight. Dew points were generally in the
50s to lower 60s across much of the area. This dry low level
air should help to limit fog to the river valleys overnight.
Overnight lows are expected to be near seasonable levels, with
efficient radiational cooling for most areas.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Gusty conditions along the ridges early Tuesday morning
- Rain chances return Wednesday; rainfall amounts will likely be
low
----------------------------------------------------------------
A low-pressure system moving in from the west and high pressure
to our northeast will create a stronger than normal gradient
wind over the ridges early Tuesday, leading to breezy conditions
in parts of Westmoreland and Fayette county. There's over a 65%
chance of 30mph wind gusts during the time period of midnight to
7am on Tuesday. As the low moves eastwards across the Great
Lakes into New York, winds will shift southerly, and the risk of
downslope winds will lessen after daybreak.
The chance of measurable precipitation rises above 40% after
4am Wednesday as the low tracks into the vicinity of Buffalo,
NY. The latest run of the NBM shows a low probability of
significant rainfall. High resolution models suggest a broken
line of showers and isolated storms passing across the region.
The likelihood of widespread rainfall of a quarter of inch or
more is very low (less than 60%). In the wake of this weak
front, probability of precipitation is expected to decrease with
increasing mid-level subsidence from the west mid-afternoon
Wednesday. Lingering showers near the ridges due to upsloping
can't be ruled out Wednesday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Above average temperatures expected into the weekend
- Precipitation chances return Saturday into Sunday with a
passing cold front
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Extended forecasts indicate that a ridge of high pressure over
the Ohio River Valley will be present Thursday into Friday,
bringing mostly dry conditions and temperatures that are near to
above average. A weak trough could initiate stray shower
activity along the ridges on Thursday. However, heavy rainfall
potential will be considered low with mid-level subsidence noted
within area soundings.
A passing cold front and an upper-level trough will likely
increase the chances of precipitation over the weekend. Machine
learning over the last 24 hours has indicated a 5 to 15% chance
of severe weather with this passing front over the Ohio River
Valley on Sunday and will needed to be monitor over the next few
days.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure centered off to our north and east will maintain
VFR conditions through the TAF period. Expect some passing
clouds overnight with a light gradient wind prevailing out of
the east/southeast. Some radiation/river valley fog may develop
in the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning and bring temporary
restrictions with highest probability at MGW/FKL. Not confident
in impacts to any terminal, but with an east/southeast wind,
some of it may advect toward FKL and higher dew points at MGW
lend higher chance for radiation fog overnight. Any restrictions
will quickly clear after sunrise.
VFR continues Tuesday as high pressure slides off to the east.
Afternoon cu are favored with bases around 5-7kft. The gradient
will tighten a bit ahead of approaching weak low pressure with
southerly wind around 5-10 mph.
Outlook...
Tuesday night into early Wednesday, a weakening upper-level
trough approaches from the northwest and introduces elevated
shower/thunderstorm chances by Wednesday. This may temporarily
bring ceiling restrictions back. By Thursday, VFR conditions
will return with ensembles strongly favoring high pressure and
dry weather through the end the week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Shallenberger
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...Hefferan
LONG TERM...Hefferan
AVIATION...MLB
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 18, 8:15 PM EDT---------------
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