ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:31 AM EDT234
FXUS61 KILN 160531
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
131 AM EDT Sat Aug 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid pattern will support periodic showers and storms
today through Tuesday before a cold front drifts through the region
Wednesday with more widespread shower and storm chances. Above normal
temperatures are expected through midweek, with drier and slightly
cooler conditions for the second half of the upcoming workweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Dry conditions are favored to continue through at least mid morning,
with the primary item of interest through daybreak being the
development of some patchy fog, particularly in area river valleys.
This fog potential will be most pronounced across the lower Scioto
Valley and NE KY into parts of central OH. Seasonably warm and mild
conditions will continue with temps dipping into the upper 60s to
lower 70s by daybreak.
The center of a midlevel high remains anchored to the SW of the ILN
FA across the mid MS Rvr Vly, with some signs of the ridge beginning
to break down/flatten on the ern periphery through the near and short
term periods.
Subtleties within this pattern point to the potential for a bit more
activity across the OH Vly beginning today as a belt of stronger
westerlies on the NE fringe of the ridge center gradually shifts to
the SE into the region by this evening into tonight, persisting
through early next week. This suggests at least some potential for
better convective coverage evolving into the local area, mainly by
this evening/night.
There are several expectations regarding convective evolution today,
beginning with one or more clusters expected to develop across
nrn/central IN by noon, with a quick progression to the SSE very
close to W/NW fringes of the local area early afternoon. Expect
activity in NE/central IN to tail to the S gradually through time
toward the better pooling of instby to the W of the local area, with
coverage likely diminishing with E/SE extent into the local area as
LL moisture/dewpoints mix out a bit and SB instby actually decreases
a bit into mid/late afternoon locally. The best chance for some
ISO/SCT activity through mid/late afternoon will be across parts of
WC OH and EC IN, but expect that coverage should be waning and
focusing more to the W of the local area by mid afternoon. Some
ISO/spotty activity cannot be ruled out elsewhere, but do think the
focus of any afternoon activity will be across the W/NW quarter of
the local area.
Highs today will generally top out in the lower 90s with peak heat
index values in the mid to upper 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
A second, slightly more widespread potential for SHRA/TSRA is likely
to evolve sometime late this evening through the overnight, although
confidence on timing and locations remain somewhat low at this
juncture. There is enough of a signal to suggest that one or more
TSRA complexes will be diving to the SE toward (and into) the wrn
third of the ILN FA past sunset into the overnight, albeit once again
in a weakening state. The LL environment will be increasingly
unfavorable to maintenance of coverage with SE extent later into the
nighttime, but there may be enough momentum to suggest that at least
ISO activity may reach parts of SE IN and N KY after midnight. Fcst
soundings suggest that instby should be waning after sunset with the
establishment of a near-sfc inversion, but if these complexes are
able to maintain structure with SE extent a bit earlier, some gusty
winds certainly will be possible across the wrn third of the ILN FA
late this evening into the early overnight. This would be favored
from WC OH southward through N KY (mainly near/W of the I-75
corridor). Still... widespread severe storms are not expected as the
storms should be on a weakening trend into the area during this time.
Even still, the scenario described is far from certain as some
guidance suggests a setup where SCT/weakening storms evolve from NNW
to SSE much later... perhaps around or slightly after daybreak Sunday.
There is low confidence regarding the timing of best convective
coverage, but there has been a signal for slightly higher PoPs
/sometime/ from late evening through mid morning Sunday. Gusty winds
and frequent lightning will be the primary concern with any of the
strongest activity, with the best coverage favored near/W of I-75 and
near/N of I-70.
Temps tonight bottom out in the lower 70s amidst muggy conditions.
The setup for the daytime Sunday will be largely contingent on
convective evolution either this evening or during the several hours
around daybreak Sunday through mid morning. In the latter scenario,
it would be a bit more difficult to reinitiate activity during the
peak heating in the afternoon in the wake of widespread morning
activity, but trends will be monitored closely to adjust messaging as
needed.
Temps on Sunday will likely be convectively modified and therefore
may end up being several degrees lower than previous guidance had
suggested. Do think that some heat index values may approach the mid
to upper 90s near the Tri-State and N KY, but the signal for heat
index values of 100 degrees is relatively minimal except for perhaps
parts of N KY. But early day storm potential adds significant
uncertainty to heat potential Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any shower/storm activity on Sunday will gradually wane as we
progress into the overnight hours. H5 ridge expands northward ever
so slightly across the eastern CONUS on Monday, which will hinder
storm development that day across our CWA. Cannot rule out some
diurnally driven activity however, but will have to wait and see how
CAMs resolve this. If storms are held at bay, Monday may end up
being the hottest day of the period as highs reach the upper 80s to
lower 90s.
Shortwave energy will begin to dive southward through the Great
Lakes region on Tuesday, ejecting through the upper Ohio Valley.
This will result in the best coverage of showers and thunderstorms
during the extended period, with PoPs lingering into Wednesday.
This H5 trough eventually absorbs Hurricane Erin by mid to late
week, carrying it just off the Atlantic coast. It is unlikely that
the Ohio Valley will feel the effects of Erin based on latest
guidance. However, with subtle troughing persisting over the fa,
some relief from the heat and humidity will be observed near the end
of the work week, with highs returning to near or just below normal
values.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period, with
the exception of fog through daybreak at the typical spots.
Widespread MVFR conditions are expected at KILN and KLCK, with
IFR/LIFR at KLUK. VSBY should improve by 13Z.
Winds will be light/VRB through the period, with FEW-SCT VFR Cu
developing past 15z. There is a very small chance of storms during
the afternoon, but the best coverage is likely to remain northwest
of the TAF sites, so the fcsts remain dry for now. A better chance
may evolve toward the end of the period, mainly after 01z and focused
primarily for wrn sites of KDAY/KCVG/KLUK. There was enough of a
signal to add a PROB30 for these sites for now.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ073-075-080.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 16, 1:31 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
