ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 10:46 AM EDT551
FXUS61 KILN 151446
AFDILN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1046 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes will offer
mainly dry conditions today, with only a stray shower or storm
possible this afternoon. Periodic shower and storm chances will
gradually increase this weekend into early next week. A warming trend
will develop this weekend into early next week as well. Chances for
showers and storms increase substantially by midweek next week as a
frontal boundary moves through the region.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Satellite imagery shows an area of clouds with a few showers
developing across northern KY at the nose of an instability axis.
Expect our sw counties to be the most favored region for some isold
development this aftn thru the aftn. Have sent a quick update to
account for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm thru the aftn.
Previous Discussion...
A FEW/SCT Cu continue to dot the region early this morning, with a
diurnally-driven increase in coverage expected by this afternoon.
Temps in the mid to upper 60s early will rebound to around 90
degrees this afternoon amidst a mix of sun and clouds.
With dewpoints lingering in the upper 60s, a healthy afternoon Cu
field is expected to sprout once again. However, in the absence of
any notable source of lift or LL/deep-layer shear, the diurnally-
driven SHRA development should remain limited in nature. The
coverage should remain just below a mention of slight chance, but
non-zero, by mid afternoon, particularly near/west of the I-75
corridor.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
More of the same is on tap tonight with a clearing trend expected for
the overnight amidst slightly muggier conditions. Temps will bottom
out in the upper 60s to lower 70s across the ILN FA.
The pattern on Saturday begins to reveal the potential to a bit more
active across the OH Vly as the midlevel ridge centered to the SW of
the local area starts to break down. The belt of stronger westerlies
on the N/NE fringe of the ridge center will gradually shift to the
SE into the region by late Saturday persisting through early next
week. This suggests at least some potential for better convective
coverage evolving into the local area, mainly by Saturday
evening/night. Do think most of the area will remain dry through the
daytime, but one or more clusters of showers/storms should
approach/move into N/W parts of the local area into Saturday
evening/night into early Sunday. The exact evolution of this
situation remains a bit uncertain, especially with the reduction in
diurnally-driven instby. However, we may end up seeing ISO/SCT
SHRA/TSRA across N/W parts of the local area into Sunday morning.
Highs on Saturday will reach into the lower 90s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This will create heat index values in
the mid to upper 90s by mid/late afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Primary synoptic feature to monitor is the positioning of the H5
ridge. Latest global model trends are now suggesting the eastern
periphery of the ridge dampening earlier than expected, which would
result in a more unsettled pattern across our CWA for the second
half of the weekend. Will have to see how CAMs begin resolving this,
but Sunday may overachieve from a convective standpoint. Already
beginning to see increasing PoPs from the NBM, but wouldn't be
surprised to see this continue to trend upward. While current
apparent temperature values continue to approach the middle 90s to
near 100 Sunday, coverage of showers/storms may reduce the risk for
potential Heat Advisory.
Hot and humid air mass remains intact to start the work week.
Coverage in showers/storms somewhat uncertain on Monday, but still
appears to be non-zero. Chances for storms will gradually increase
Tuesday into Wednesday as the H5 ridge continues to dampen, and an
associated surface boundary drapes across the upper Ohio Valley,
resulting in better forcing.
Frontal boundary eventually slides south of our CWA by Wednesday
night, which will provide some relief from the heat/humidity through
the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the
exception of some BR and MVFR VSBY possible at KLUK in the several
hours around daybreak Saturday.
VFR Cu should expand in coverage late morning through the afternoon,
with a non-zero SHRA/TSRA chance, particularly for wrn sites of
KCVG/KLUK/KDAY by mid afternoon. Did not have enough confidence to
include a PROB30 at this juncture given expected limited coverage.
Winds are expected to be light and variable through the period, with
a clearing trend expected once again after sunset through tonight.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Tuesday.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...KC/AR
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...Clark
AVIATION...KC
Source:
ILN issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 10:46 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
