LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:50 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...633
FXUS64 KLIX 131850
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
150 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Through the remainder of the afternoon seeing convection
continuing to bubble up across the region. Latest mesoanalysis
suggest the best LL convergence is mainly north of the I-10/12
corridor taking on a slight WNW to ESE orientation. That said
locally enhanced convergence along the seabreeze over coastal
SELA is leading to storms over that area as well. Obviously being
it is the Summer deep layer shear is practically nonexistent but
there is slightly better upper lvl divergence across the northwest
and this is where some of the strongest convection has been noted
luckily it has just remained outside of the CWA. That said as we
continue to heat up additional storms are likely to develop
especially where any boundaries collide. We are rather unstable
and given the high DCAPE values draped across much of SELA it is
not out of the question to get a few wet microburst. /CAB/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Now through Friday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
The weak easterly wave should continue to move through the region
today and allow for additional convective development during the
late morning through early evening. PWs of 2.21" seem favorable
for coverage and some locally heavier rainfall with convection
that develops. However, decided to shift POPs downward just a bit
given latest guidance/cams being a bit less bullish. This pattern
that has been rather tricky and persistent will finally evolve as
an H5 ridge begins to spread westward from Florida over the
northern Gulf. Eventually, this will help limit POPs slightly and
allow temperatures to increase back into the lower and middle 90s
by the end of the workweek. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025
The weekend begins with a 595dam mid level ridge over the region.
This feature will help overall limit convective coverage during
the afternoon and evening hours, but there continues to be a
signal for isolated to scattered convection even with the high
center over our region. Going through the weekend the ridge will
slowly begin to refocus north and west of our region. Relatively
higher heights will still be around, which suggests temperatures
will be a bit higher...generally at or above average for mid
August. Heat index values look to meet heat advisory criteria this
weekend and potentially into the start of the new workweek. A bit
more moisture may arrive by Tuesday increasing POPs just a bit,
which may help limit heat ever so slightly by the end of the
period. However, heat index values look to remain around 105F or
so on Tuesday. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Currently all terminals are in VFR and will likely remain that way
unless impacted by convection. Scattered TSRA will be possible
through the afternoon and early evening hours. obviously any
terminal that see convection will also have impacts to both vsby
and cigs but another issue could be gusty winds. TEMPO's have been
included in most terminals through the remainder of the
afternoon. Convective coverage should be a little lower Thursday
as high pressure builds in. /CAB/
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Convection will continue to impact the coastal waters especially
overnight and early in the morning tonight and tomorrow before
slowly decreasing in coverage heading into the weekend. High
pressure centered to the east will slowly work west over the
central and north-central Gulf leading to generally light winds
Friday and through the weekend. Otherwise the main impacts is
really just showers and thunderstorms. With any thunderstorm
locally higher winds and seas are expected and waterspout will be
possible. /CAB/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 93 73 92 / 30 50 20 50
BTR 77 95 76 94 / 30 50 10 50
ASD 75 92 75 93 / 20 40 10 40
MSY 79 94 79 94 / 20 50 10 50
GPT 76 92 76 92 / 20 40 10 40
PQL 75 92 75 92 / 30 30 10 30
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...CAB
MARINE...CAB
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:50 PM CDT ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...---------------
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