JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 4:01 PM EDT988
FXUS63 KJKL 152001
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
401 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will build through the weekend and last
through early next week.
- The next significant potential for showers and thunderstorms
arrives the middle of next week, which will also knock down
temperatures a bit.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
A frontal boundary stalled across KY and began to dissolve today.
Drier air behind the front attempted to make it into our area from
the northeast, but didn't have much success. There was enough
moisture present for isolated showers and thunderstorms to pop up
again today. The greatest concentration has been near our western
border, where the moisture extends deeper in the atmosphere. Will
expect this activity to die out this evening as heating is lost
and instability wanes. With skies becoming clear, another night
of valley fog development will follow, enhanced to some extent by
somewhat dry air aloft to allow for decent radiating. On Saturday,
fog once again dissipates during the morning. Instability will
develop again on Saturday, and very isolated showers/thunderstorms
can't be completely ruled out. However, dry air aloft and
entrainment will make it very difficult for convective columns to
persist, and the overall risk at any given point looks too low to
include a POP in the forecast. Saturday night then look like
a repeat of tonight.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Isolated showers/thunderstorms were affecting locations generally
near and west of I-75 at TAF issuance time. These were bringing
localized sub-VFR conditions and will sporadically affect some
places through the afternoon. Have included a PROB30 group for
the possibility of a hit from these showers at KSME and KLOZ, but
that could be generous. Outside of precip, conditions will be
VFR.
Valley fog with IFR and worse conditions will develop late
tonight and spread with time. KSME and KLOZ are the sites most
likely to be affected. The fog will dissipate on Saturday
morning, leaving VFR conditions to last into the afternoon.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...HAL
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 4:01 PM EDT---------------
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