JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 12:36 PM EDT608
FXUS63 KJKL 151636
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1236 PM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and humid conditions will build through the weekend. Feels-
like temperatures will reach the mid to upper 90s for many on
Saturday and Sunday.
- The heat is expected to peak on Monday and Tuesday, when feels-
like temperatures may reach the low 100s in some locations.
- Looking ahead, chances for showers and storms will increase by
Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing some relief from the heat.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Showers have started to pop up in an area of deeper moisture over
our southwestern counties, and a 20% POP has been expanded over
that area for this afternoon.
UPDATE Issued at 911 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Fog and low clouds linger at mid morning in and near the deeper
valleys, especially in southeast KY. This will slow the
temperature rise in those locations. Adjustments have been made to
wx, sky, and temperatures based on satellite obs.
UPDATE Issued at 608 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Dense fog and low ceilings have developed at several locations
across eastern Kentucky, but we should start to see significant
improvement shortly after sunrise. Active weather is not expected
today as high pressure begins to build into the region. Afternoon
highs will climb into the upper 80s and even some low 90s, but
heat index values should remain below 100F.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Radiation fog continues to develop across eastern Kentucky early
this morning. Otherwise, it looks like a benign weather pattern is
setting up as surface high pressure commences building into the
region later today. Despite the presence of a weak upper trough to
our west, rain and storm chances from today, through the weekend,
and early next week are extremely low. At the same time, heat
will gradually increase across the area over the next several
days.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
By Sunday, high pressure at the surface and aloft will become
firmly established across the region, and the widespread
subsidence will greatly limit our convective chances for the next
several days. It appears that Monday and Tuesday are going to be
our hottest days, with afternoon high temperatures in the low and
even some mid 90s, and heat index values possibly reaching the
low 100s, especially at lower elevations. Fortunately, we should
remain below heat advisory criteria throughout the forecast
period. Temperatures will start to back off by next Wednesday as
the surface high breaks down and a low center drifts across the
region. At the same time, the upper-level pattern will become more
amplified we come under the influence of a northwest flow aloft.
So we can expect some rain and storm chances on Tuesday, and
especially on Wednesday and beyond.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 728 AM EDT FRI AUG 15 2025
Several of the terminals are experiencing LIFR/VLIFR conditions
this morning owing to dense fog and low stratus. Conditions should
fully improve by 13-14Z, with VFR conditions the remainder of the
day and this evening before radiation fog re-forms once again
during the overnight period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...ROSE
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 15, 12:36 PM EDT---------------
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