PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 2:53 PM CDT509
FXUS63 KPAH 131953
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
253 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Typical heat and humidity continue through tomorrow. Then we
warm up through the weekend and into early next week. Heat
indices will once again rise to around 100-105.
- Showers and storms remain possible this afternoon mainly
across the southern portions of the area. There is a risk for
some gusty winds with some of the stronger storms. Heavy
downpours and frequent lightning are also expected.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
Aloft there is a weak shortwave trof draped across the area
with a sfc cold front sitting just north of the area. This along
with decent low level moisture, has allowed storms to start
popping up across portions of SEMO and southern IL. Even though
models are doing pretty poorly with this convection, it is still
expected to last only till around sunset. There is also the
risk for some gusty winds with the stronger storms thanks to
drier air in the midlevels. Otherwise the usual threats for
heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected.
Tomorrow there is still some residual moisture around despite the
shift to light northerly winds. A few models (the NAM in particular)
suggest the potential for more patchy to dense fog tonight/tomorrow
morning. The possibility for dense fog would be greatest for areas
that see rain today. More showers and storms are possible tomorrow
afternoon over mainly the Pennyrile. Otherwise, normal heat and
humidity is still in place through tomorrow.
High pressure builds over the region by the start of the weekend,
brining drier weather and an increase in temperatures back into the
mid 90s (with a few upper 90s possible). During this time heat
indices will once again rise to being around 100-105 through
Tuesday. A cold frontal passage is expected Wednesday with the
return of rain chances and a slight cool down.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025
A low level diurnal cu field has set up across the area
along with some developing showers and thunderstorms mainly over
SEMO. There is the chance for more development of showers and
storms this afternoon through this evening mainly for the
southern half of the area. The terminals that could be affected
are KCGI, KPAH, and KOWB. There is once again the potential for
fog development tonight across portions of the area,
particularly those places that see rain this afternoon.
Winds continue to be light and variable today to calm overnight
and back to light and variable tomorrow.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HICKFORD
AVIATION...HICKFORD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 2:53 PM CDT---------------
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