JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:34 PM EDT323
FXUS63 KJKL 131734
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
134 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms today bring a threat of
high water and isolated flash flooding. The highest risk is in
far southeastern Kentucky, where there are pockets of saturated
soils from recent rainfall.
- Due to this threat, a Flood Watch is in effect for these
vulnerable areas through this evening.
- Showers and thunderstorms will decrease on Thursday, leading
into a drier and hotter weekend with temperatures climbing into
the low 90s for many locations by Sunday.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
Did a quick load of the latest surface obs to get the warming
trendS. The biggest tweaks occurred with the PoP (based on current
radar trends) and aviation grids. Early afternoon text and radio
products have been updated to reflect the changes. Grids have been
saved and sent.
UPDATE Issued at 752 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
No major changes with this update. Showers and thunderstorms have
been a little slow to develop this morning over the JKL CWA but
radar finally appears to show an uptick in shower development in
the last 30 minutes or so and expect that trend to continue over
the next few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
It is fairly quiet across most of eastern Kentucky early this
morning with generally variable cloud cover and temperatures in
the lower and middle 70s. Radar shows light to moderate returns
over eastern Tennessee, southwest Virginia and far southeastern
Kentucky while a more substantial line of convection is pressing
eastward through southcentral Kentucky and Middle Tennessee. The
latest upper-level analysis shows a weak 500 hPa vorticity lobe a
little west of that line of convection across western Kentucky
and West Tennessee. This is situated just east of a 500 hPa trough
axis extending south from an ~549 dam low over Hudson Bay across
Michigan, and then southwest toward Oklahoma, and is nearly
collocated with a surface cold front. The latest SPC mesoanalysis
shows a high PWAT air mass (~2.0 inches) advecting northeastward
across the Tennessee Valley and into southern portions of the
Commonwealth.
The aforementioned vorticity maximum is progged to lift east-
northeast through mid-morning, likely directing convection
across much of southeast Kentucky through the remainder of the
morning. Model soundings show a very favorable profile for
efficient rainfall processes with a tall but very skinny CAPE
profile, low- and mid- level RH greater than 90%, and a deep warm
cloud layer. Torrential downpours are likely with the stronger
activity. Flash flood guidance is fairly high across most of the
JKL CWA. However, in some locations where heavy rainfall has
occurred earlier in the month especially in McCreary, Bell,
Harlan, Letcher, and Perry counties guidance remains fairly low
(as low as 1.4 inches in 1 hour in the most susceptible basins).
While the CAMs (not necessarily handling the setup well) are
generally more bullish on the heavier rainfall through midday
occurring over Eastern Tennessee and Southwest Virginia, the
pockets of compromised soil moisture (especially in the
aforementioned counties) and the threat of showers and
thunderstorms with highly efficient rainfall production crossing
the same locations are concerning. A Flood Watchalbeit one with
lower confidencehas been issued for southeastern Kentucky through
00Z.
After a wet morning for many locations, the synoptic pattern
might favor a bit of a lull. However, additional shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across the area
through the afternoon and persist into the evening ahead of the
cold front before gradually diminishing. Though more sparse, some
convection is likely to linger into the overnight, as another
vorticity lobe (associated with the aforementioned 500 hPa trough
axis) sinks southeast across the Bluegrass State just ahead of the
surface cold front. With high PWATs still in place, locally heavy
rainfall remains a concern. By sunrise Thursday, the upper level
low will be quickly pivoting toward Greenland while the troughing
extending down into the CONUS flattens. Moreover, heights will
start to rise over Eastern Kentucky as a retrograding 500 hPa high
consolidates over the Florida Peninsula and upper-level ridging
moves in from the Central/Southern Rockies. The resulting
northwest flow pattern will help the cold front continue oozing
into our forecast area on Thursday with a slow drying of the air
mass. So, while convection is probable once again tomorrow,
chances will tend to lower and fade from northwest to southeast.
In sensible terms, expect a muggy couple of days with rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. The rainfall will be heaviest and most
widespread today but will linger into tonight and Thursday.
Torrential downpours are likely with stronger showers and storms,
and could lead to instances of high water or flash flooding, with
the greatest chances from the Tennessee-Kentucky border east of
Wayne County to those counties adjacent to the Virginia-Kentucky
border. Cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures cooler,
generally topping out in the lower and middle 80s both days, with
lows in the mid to upper 60s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
Expect some surface ridging across the Commonwealth late in the
week. Coupled with a quasi-zonal flow aloft, we can look forward
to very low rain chances through the weekend and into early next
week. At the same time, temperatures will gradually increase, with
Sunday potentially being the hottest day as several spots might
reach the low 90s. Still, heat index values should stay below 100F
through day 7, so no heat advisories will be required this
forecast. By early next week, the upper pattern looks to become
more amplified as high pressure builds to our west, thereby
placing eastern Kentucky under a northwest flow aloft. At the
surface, a southward-moving boundary is expected to sweep through
the region. This will bring increased cloud cover and cooler
temperatures, and also increased rain chances through the end of
next week. Still, QPF totals for days 6 and 7 (12Z Mon until 12Z
Wed) are less than 1/4" across the bulk of the JKL CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2025
TAFs are mostly MVFR as MVFR CIGS are in place across much of
eastern Kentucky. CIGS are forecast to climb into VFR this
afternoon but with showers and storms increasing in coverage; the
sites will be in between MVFR and VFR through the early evening.
Once showers dissipate, low-end VFR conditions are forecast;
however, as a cold front approaches the area, CIGS will fall into
MVFR/IFR through the overnight with fog developing late. CIGS and
VIS are expected to improve after 14Z with terminals slowly
improving to VFR for the early afternoon. Showers and storms are
expected to redevelop toward the end of the TAF period after 16Z.
Winds are forecast to be mostly light and variable outside of
ongoing convection.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ084>088-110-113-
115>118-120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VORST
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...VORST
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 13, 1:34 PM EDT---------------
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