MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:45 PM CDT ...New Aviation...466
FXUS64 KMOB 071745
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Now through Wednesday...
An upper level trough meanders a bit west over the Southeast into
Sunday before an upper ridge off the East Coast builds west over the
region Sunday into the coming week, shifting the upper trough to
over the Southern Plains. A band of higher moisture levels
(precipitable h20 levels > 2") along and south of the coast remains
there into the weekend before shifting inland as Atlantic moisture
moves inland over the Southeast. The reason is flow on the south
side of a surface ridge stretching southwest along the East Coast
becomes more organized. Best PoPs remain along and south of the
coast into the weekend, then move inland mainly over eastern
portions of the forecast area over the weekend into the coming
week as moisture levels increase. Guidance is advertising an upper
level shortwave moving west over the Gulf on the south side of
the upper ridge this weekend into the coming week, providing an
extra oomph to convection initiation along and south of the coast.
This convection is expected to continue to follow the diurnal
pattern present recently; showers and thunderstorms forming along
and south of the coast overnight into the morning hours, then
shifting onshore late morning through the afternoon. Onshore
convection may some rowdy storms, with MLCapes rising to around
1500-2000J/kg. Add in drier air in the mid levels, especially as
one moves inland from the coast, and a few rowdy storms are
possible each afternoon/evening.
High temperatures remain around seasonal norms through most of the
forecast, with a bit of an uptick Wednesday. Upper 80s to around 90
expected most days, with around 90 to the low 90s expected
Wednesday. Heat Indices in the 95-100 degree range expected most
days, with 98-103 expected Wednesday. Low temperatures see a bit of
a rise through the forecast, starting out around 70 well north of I-
10, mid to upper 70s south to the coast Thursday night. Mid to upper
70s are expected Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
Weak onshore flow and swell on area beaches will help to keep the
risk of Rip Currents Low through the weekend.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon with isolated to
scattered showers already beginning to develop. Showers and storms
may result in temporary reductions to MVFR and IFR ceilings and
visbys during the late afternoon and early evening hours before
subsiding prior to midnight. VFR conditions will prevail through
the overnight hours with light and variable winds. BB-8
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025
Light and variable winds are expected the rest of the week before
becoming a more organized easterly this weekend into the coming
week. No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 72 89 72 88 73 88 74 89 / 20 50 20 70 40 80 40 80
Pensacola 75 89 75 88 76 89 77 89 / 20 50 40 80 50 80 50 80
Destin 77 89 77 89 77 89 77 88 / 30 60 50 80 50 80 60 80
Evergreen 70 91 71 89 71 91 72 90 / 10 30 10 50 20 70 30 70
Waynesboro 70 91 71 89 71 90 72 89 / 10 20 0 40 20 60 20 60
Camden 70 89 71 89 72 90 72 88 / 10 20 10 30 10 50 20 60
Crestview 71 89 72 89 72 89 72 88 / 10 50 20 70 30 80 40 80
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 7, 12:45 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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