LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:40 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...133
FXUS63 KLMK 091040
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
640 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Mostly dry conditions through the weekend, with daily high
temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 through next week.
* Shower and storm chances increase again early next week as cold
front approaches the region. Severe weather chances are unlikely.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
An upper level ridge will continue to build over the Ohio Valley
today, with sfc high pressure centered to our east. This will
promote a mostly dry pattern, with temps warming into the upper 80s
to lower 90s once again this afternoon. As we heat up, we'll see
another diurnal cu field blossom over the region. Subsidence should
help limit any pop-up showers, but still can't completely rule out
an isolated shower for KY. Similar to the past few days, most of the
area will remain dry and mostly sunny. With sfc dewpoints forecast
to be near 70 degrees, heat indices today will be in the upper 90s.
For tonight, any diurnal cloud cover will dissipate with the loss of
heating, leading to another mostly clear night with light winds.
Temps for tonight are expected to be in the upper 60s to around 70.
With high pressure and the upper ridge still in place, dry weather
will continue tonight.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
==== Sunday - Sunday Night =====
The upper ridge will be over the eastern third of the US on Sunday,
which will continue to influence a mostly dry regime with temps
slightly above normal. Still can't rule out a few isolated showers
across southern IN or north central KY, but most of the area will
remain dry. Will continue with a silent 10% PoP, as coverage should
be pretty minimal. Model soundings mostly suggest PWATs under 1.50",
which would be around the daily median. The 100-member LREF backs
this up, with just a 25% prob of PWATs exceeding 1.5" Sunday
afternoon. Temps are forecast to reach the lower 90s across the
entire forecast area. Combined with dewpoints creeping up to around
70 degrees, heat indices near 100 degrees will be possible.
The diurnal cu field will diminish by the evening hours as peak
heating is lost, leading to another mostly clear night. Temps are
expected to be right around normal with readings in the upper 60s
and low 70s. The upper ridge will begin to shift east of the region
overnight and into Monday.
===== Monday through Friday =====
By Monday, the upper ridge axis will have departed to the east,
leaving the door open for an upper level trough to swing through the
upper Midwest. We'll eventually get into a better moisture fetch
plume, which will help fire off some daily afternoon shower and
storm chances every day next week. For Monday, PoPs will be mainly
for south-central KY, but will be area-wide for Tuesday-Friday. The
frontal boundary will likely remain across the northern Ohio Valley,
so our forcing will not be as strong. Additionally, general wind
profiles are meager, which will inhibit severe probs some, but will
support slow-moving storms. PWATs near 2 inches will be possible, so
heavier downpours, combined with slow storm motions, could lead to
some localized flooding issues throughout next week. PoPs will peak
each afternoon, then decrease in chances and coverage for the
overnights.
Temps will remain close to normal next week, with each day in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Any day that fails to trigger convection would
have a better shot to get solidly into the lower 90s, which would
yield afternoon heat index values near 100 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025
VFR conditions across the area this morning will continue for today,
with light south-southeast winds. Expect a scattered diurnal cu
field this afternoon as we reach peak daytime heating, but this will
cause no impacts to the terminals. By this evening, clouds clear out
and winds become nearly calm.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CJP
LONG TERM...CJP
AVIATION...CJP
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 9, 6:40 AM EDT ...Updated Aviation Discussion...---------------
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