LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 2:44 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...263
FXUS64 KLIX 051944
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
244 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
The overall pattern is left unchanged from the last several days
with the H5 weakness remaining over our region. The CWFA remains
split nearly 50/50 with dry air to the northwest and better
moisture to the southeast...where the best potential for
convection resides. Through the short term, the flow will remain
light with a high pressure wedge down the Appalachians and
surface trough remaining in close proximity. Like days past,
temperatures will remain around seasonal averages with the very
modest weakness aloft.(Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
There will be a bit of a change in the pattern going into the
medium range. To start, later in the workweek, the weakness and
surface feature are largely left unchanged from the short term
period. Not much changes day to day expect maybe slightly lower
POPs on Friday as the weakness tries to fill just a bit.
Regardless, eyes will refocus to the southeast toward the
southwest Atlantic and Caribbean where an easterly wave will be
moving into the Gulf. This feature should continue to move
downstream into our neck of the woods through this weekend. No
guidance shows this anything more than a sharp inverted surface
trough at this point. Regardless, an influx of tropical moisture
is anticipated, which will enhance the convective potential. With
the likely higher coverage, did shift temperatures down a skosh as
lower to mid 90s seems a bit bullish with numerous clusters of
storms around as the wave moves through.
Temperatures will rebound early next week. A stronger H5 ridge
sets up over the southeast in the wake of the passing easterly
wave once again warming us up and putting the brakes on higher POP
potential. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
After some morning low cloudiness most terminals have improved and
are now MVFR or VFR respectively. There may be additional low
cloudiness later tonight and early Wednesday, especially for MCB
and GPT. Convection will be possible this afternoon and again
Wednesday which may cause brief reductions in VIS/CIGs, however,
outside of convection expect mostly VFR conditions. Winds continue
to remain light and variable. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Tue Aug 5 2025
A surface front/trough continues to reside over the northern Gulf
and is enhancing convective potential especially during the
overnight and early morning hours. Convection should be the
primary focus as winds and seas around any convection may be
locally higher. In the light low level flow, waterspouts may be
possible, especially any updraft that can become rooted into a
surface boundary. (Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 71 90 71 92 / 20 30 10 30
BTR 73 92 74 93 / 30 50 10 40
ASD 71 90 72 91 / 40 60 30 50
MSY 77 92 77 93 / 30 70 30 70
GPT 74 91 74 91 / 50 60 30 50
PQL 72 90 72 90 / 50 60 40 60
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF
Source:
LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 5, 2:44 PM CDT ...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...---------------
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