IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 9:57 AM EDT830
FXUS63 KIND 061357
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
957 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated storms possible over eastern portions of the area
Wednesday then decrease late week into the weekend
- Progressively warmer and more humid conditions over the next
several days
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
Going forecast is in excellent shape this morning with no changes
necessary. A slight increase in low level thicknesses and minimal
airmass change suggest highs should be a few degrees above
persistence, which is roughly in line with current grids.
As the upper trough axis continues to push eastward today, a low
threat for thunderstorms will remain over eastern portions of
central Indiana during the heat of the afternoon, though as
previously mentioned, strengthening midlevel subsidence and dry air
will be working against deep, moist convection, limiting coverage
and intensity, though slow, drifting storm motions and seasonably
high wet bulb zero heights will present at least an isolated flood
threat due to locally heavy rain.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
Skies have largely cleared across central Indiana as of 1am. So far,
no fog has been noted on satellite or in observations. However,
given relatively ideal conditions for radiative fog formation we
maintain fog in our forecast. Fog should be fairly shallow for most
locations but a few instances of dense fog cannot be ruled out.
After sunrise, any lingering fog should dissipate. Cumulus growth is
expected by late morning as the boundary layer deepens and
temperatures quickly climb into the 80s. Aloft, guidance shows a
weak trough axis passing east of Indiana today which will leave us
within a subsident atmosphere. Subsidence is weak, however, and
there may be enough instability present to overcome it. Any shower
or thunderstorm that develops will be isolated and weak. Another
mitigating factor is dry mid-level air. Any aspiring updraft will
need to survive dry air entrainment in order to grow into an actual
thunderstorm. Shear is essentially non-existent, so any storm that
makes it will be pulse-like in nature and short-lived. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible in the strongest storms. Best chance
of precip is across our eastern counties where subsidence is a bit
less.
Tonight looks to be similar to previous nights with clearing skies
and patchy fog. Guidance shows a slightly drier boundary layer and
so fog may be more limited than the previous night. Typically fog-
prone locations stand to see the highest chance of patchy fog.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
A return to hot and humid conditions appears likely early in the
long term. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing ridge-
building over the Plains spreading eastward by the weekend. At the
surface, high pressure nearby should allow for a generally subsident
atmosphere which will limit cloud cover and storm chances.
Thankfully, the flow pattern aloft appears rather progressive,
albeit slow, so the heat and humidity does not appear to stick
around long. A trough approaches late in the weekend along with an
attendant cold front. Unfortunately this also means showers and
thunderstorms which may persist into the new week. Some members of
guidance take a while to bring the front through...with it
potentially lingering nearby into Wednesday. Flow aloft is weak and
so we're not expecting any organized severe threat. Our primary
storm hazard may once again be heavy rain and localized flooding.
Given uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front, we will
maintain chance PoPs through Wednesday. Temperatures will depend on
the timing and strength of the front as well. A slower and weaker
front will allow hot/humid weather to persist while the opposite is
true of a stronger/faster front.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
Impacts:
- Isolated convection possible this afternoon
- Fog possible at terminals this morning and again late tonight
Discussion:
Guidance shows the possibility of very isolated showers or even a
thunderstorm this afternoon. Given the low probability and widely
scattered nature these will not be mentioned in the TAFs for now,
though a tempo group may be needed later on.
Winds should be light and variable for the duration of the TAF
period, with perhaps a light SE component dominating.
Conditions for fog should once again be present tonight. Fog will be
patchy in nature, with the best chance being in typically fog-prone
locations such as LAF, HUF, and BMG.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 9:57 AM EDT---------------
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