WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 4, 7:56 AM CDT124
AGUS74 KWCO 041311
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #207 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
756 AM CDT Mon Aug 04 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Flash and urban flooding possible
WHERE: Southeast Alabama, Southwest Georgia, Central Florida
Panhandle
WHEN: Through this afternoon
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: 2 - 4", locally higher (WPC, HRRR)
QPE: 2 - 3" , locally 4"+ (12Z MRMS 3 Hour)
Rain Rates: 2 - 4 "/hr (WPC)
Soil Moisture: 50 - 85% + (RSM 0 - 10 cm, NASA SPoRT)
DISCUSSION...
Heavy rainfall over the region is expected to continue and expand in
coverage through this afternoon. Slow movement of these storms as
well as the possibility for storm training will result in the
potential for flash and urban flooding through the region. Urban
areas will remain most vulnerable, however rural areas may see some
streams rapidly rise and impact low water crossings and roadways.
Some of these responses may be locally considerable if rainfall rates
and durations are sufficient to overwhelm infiltration and stream
routing.
The National Water Model (NWM) Short Range Forecast (SRF) has been
overall consistent in the placement of rapid onset signals over the
last several runs, however, the exact location and magnitude of the
responses vary from run to run based on how the HRRR is depicting the
rainfall. While the Maximum High Flow Magnitude Forecast values from
the NWM SRF are generally near the high water (50%) AEP, each run is
producing isolated pockets of AEP values below 10%, suggesting that
more significant hydrologic responses are possible. Based on observed
rapid onset flooding events over the region the last 48 hours and the
aforementioned model output, locally considerable flash flooding
cannot be ruled out.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION: weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at:
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Fontenot
ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...TAE...FFC
ATTN...RFC...ALR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Aug 4, 7:56 AM CDT---------------
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