JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:45 AM EDT405
FXUS63 KJKL 061145 AAA
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
through the next week, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours on most days.
- Our current break from the heat continues for another day, today
before temperatures climb late in the week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 720 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
as well as a tweaking of the fog in the Wx grids per the latest
satellite microphysics imagery and the obs. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
08Z sfc analysis shows eastern Kentucky between high pressure to
the east and slightly lower pressure to the west. This stagnant
pattern will allow the diurnal cycle to dominate with some
enhancement from energy aloft under general troughing. The earlier
widely scattered showers have all dried up this night as the mid
level clouds and deeper moisture has shifted east. With the
resultant clearing, areas of valley fog are showing up on the
microphysics channel of the satellite. The fog will likely become
locally dense for a time early this morning. In addition,
currently, temperatures are fairly uniform in the mid 60s to lower
70s. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints are
mostly in the mid to upper 60s.
The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are well aligned
with each other aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict troughing over the lower Ohio Valley
between 5h ridging for the Southwest states and another centered
off the Southeast Coast. This local troughing will then proceed to
fill and fade out through mid week - though still ample mid level
energy and impulses hold over the area into Thursday morning
before departing to the southeast. Later, another weaker cluster
of energy at mid levels will slide into the area from the
northwest by Thursday evening. The very small model spread through
the period supports using the NBM as the starting point for the
forecast grids with minimal adjustments needed - mainly just to
tweak the PoPs by enhancing the diurnal cycle and adding some
details from the latest CAMs consensus guidance. Did also include
some minimal terrain enhancements tonight.
Sensible weather features a slightly warmer day than Tuesday for
most with scattered showers and thunderstorms around by mid
afternoon. The convection could again be slow moving with
training of individual cells leading to a potential for heavy, to
localized excessive, rains. For tonight, it seems there will be a
better shot at more widespread fog - probably dense in the
valleys. Also, could see just a touch of terrain distinction to
temperatures depending on the cloud pattern through the night. For
Thursday - temperatures will continue to climb a bit more from
those of today with a lesser chance of showers or storms in the
afternoon compared to today. With temperatures on Thursday above
normal for much of eastern Kentucky, and higher humidity, our
relief of the past several days would be over - especially with
time as temperatures and humidity keep rising into and through the
upcoming weekend.
The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
the diurnal nature to the PoPs each day with CAMs consensus
guidance details included, too. Temperatures were not changed
much aside from a touch of terrain distinction applied to them
tonight with less cloud cover expected over the area.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 515 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
The operational NBM continues to be well representative of the
consensus forecast for this pattern with only some small changes
warranted - generally just including a touch of terrain
distinction each night through the weekend.
The previous long term discussion follows:
Weak flow aloft persists for much if not all of the extended period,
with eastern Kentucky on the far fringes of the transient mid-
latitude wave pattern to the north and subtropical high(s)
situated for much of the period either to the southwest or well to
the south and east, though on the whole mid-level heights do rise
gradually through the period. The lack of proximity to the
centers of any mid-level/upper ridging will allow for near daily
chances of showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and early
evening, with little significant change day-to-day in
temperatures, though as mid- level heights rise into the weekend
and early next week the chances for 90 degrees for highs in the
warmest locations increases. Overnight lows will mostly remain in
the 60s, but may begin to reach near or slightly above 70 degrees
early next week as those mid-level heights increase.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2025
There were areas of mainly valley fog around at the start of the
period, mostly west and north of KJKL. These could still bring
localized IFR and worse conditions including LIFR visibility and
CIGs at KSYM for the next hour or so. Outside of this, conditions
were mainly VFR and will stay that way through the day. Additional
scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely develop after heating
and destabilization occurs during the day, which would again
bring localized IFR or worse conditions primarily in the afternoon
and early evening. In addition. fog will be on tap to develop and
possibly affect a few of the TAF terminals late tonight. Away
from any storms, winds will be generally light and variable
through the period.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 6, 7:45 AM EDT---------------
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