Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #866 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE481
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0866
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 PM EDT Mon Aug 04 2025
Areas affected...Lower OH Valley
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid 041928Z - 050100Z
SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms with high rainfall
rates will be expected through early this evening. A localized
threat of flash flooding will exist.
DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E WV suite shows an upper-level
trough and closed mid-level low center drifting slowly off to the
east into the Lower OH Valley. This energy is interacting with a
pool of moderate instability which is characterized by MLCAPE
values of 1000 to 1500+ J/kg, and the latest radar imagery shows
clusters of slow-moving showers and thunderstorms expanding in
coverage across especially portions of central and southern IL
along with southwest IN.
Multiple surface boundaries/troughs are in place as well which
coupled with at least modest DPVA associated with the upper-level
trough should favor some sustainable forcing. This coupled with
the instability should yield some additional expansion of showers
and thunderstorms over the next few hours.
The PWs are relatively high with values of 1.5 to 1.75 inches in
place, and with the available instability, some rainfall rates of
1 to 2 inches/hour will be likely with the stronger storms that
evolve going through the early evening hours.
Slow cell-motions are in place given the overall steering flow,
with some of the convection already locally anchored near some of
these more subtle surface boundaries. These slow cell-motions and
fairly high rainfall rates may support some rainfall totals of 2
to 4+ inches through early this evening.
A localized threat of flash flooding will exist as a result, which
may include some isolated urban flooding impacts as well.
Orrison
...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...
ATTN...RFC...MSR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39578757 39228650 38488555 37838574 37728658
37558764 37278855 37428948 38129004 38898991
39458904
Source:
Weather Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion #866 concerning HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE---------------
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