PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 12:21 PM EDT077
FXUS61 KPBZ 011621
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1221 PM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and drier conditions continue through the weekend before
warming back up early next week. Rain chances return middle to
late next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Cool and dry conditions prevail through the near term.
---------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure builds into the Great Lakes through the near term
in the wake of Thursday's cold front. Cool and dry weather will
dominate the forecast as a result, with low temperatures
tonight dropping into the low to mid 50s across much of the area
(upper 40s possible north of I-80).
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Quiet and dry conditions continue into the weekend.
----------------------------------------------------------------
High pressure remains in place over the Great Lakes on Saturday
and into Saturday night, maintaining cool and dry conditions
across the area. Expect mostly sunny/clear skies, light winds,
and temperatures running near or just below normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry conditions through Monday.
- Slight chance of showers and storms mid-week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
There is high confidence in dry conditions persisting through at
least Monday as high pressure dominates the local forecast. A
slight warming trend will begin, however, with temperatures
climbing back above normal to the mid/upper 80s Sunday and
Monday afternoons.
Ensembles continue to suggest a trough moving from the Midwest
into the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. While lingering dry
air may initially serve to hinder the development of showers and
storms, some low-end precipitation potential returns during that
timeframe with PoPs increasing from 10-30% Tuesday afternoon to
20-40% Wednesday afternoon. Each day, the highest probabilities
for precipitation will be focused south of I-70, with lower
probabilities farther north.
Beyond Wednesday, models remain uncertain whether a trough will
deepen over the Great Lakes or if ridging will persist over the
Ohio Valley. The former solution would lead to a wetter local
forecast to end the week while the latter would keep us drier.
Given this uncertainty, opted not to deviate from the NBM's low
chance PoPs (20-40%) each afternoon.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGs have exited all ports save for MGW as drier air filters in
behind our departing cold front. MGW is expected to begin to scatter
out this afternoon. At all other ports VFR is expected to prevail
through the TAF period with light NNE'rly winds throughout today.
Subtle moisture trapped under the developing subsidence inversion
could help support a scattered VFR cu field across the region this
afternoon but clouds are expected to diminish as we approach sunset.
Outlook... High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for
morning river valley steam fog) with dry weather through the weekend
and into early portions of next week.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Cermak
NEAR TERM...Cermak
SHORT TERM...Cermak
LONG TERM...Cermak
AVIATION...AK
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 12:21 PM EDT---------------
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