LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 3:48 AM EDT835
FXUS63 KLMK 020748
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Below normal temperatures and comfortable humidity levels
through the weekend with temperatures more typical of early fall.
* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
Sunday, continuing into early-to-mid next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Overall it's largely a persistence forecast as a 1030mb sfc high
centered near Eau Claire continues to slowly build across the Great
Lakes. On the periphery of the high we have mild and dry NE winds in
the Ohio Valley, maintaining fresh and cool (by the standards of
this summer thus far) conditions. Some fog has been noted in parts
of eastern Kentucky, where clouds kept temps more suppressed on
Friday. Less risk of fog over central Kentucky as there was enough
clearing to start the night with larger T/Td spreads.
Low-level thickness progs suggest max temps this afternoon maybe 1
degree warmer than Friday for areas that got sunshine, including SDF
and LEX. With the benefit of less cloud cover today, south-central
Kentucky should also be able to warm into the lower 80s.
Low-level moisture begins to slowly recover late tonight as an
inverted sfc trof develops over the Cumberland Plateau. Will start
to see increased cloud cover and slightly warmer min temps, not to
mention isolated to scattered showers over east-central Kentucky
after midnight.
The inverted trof starts to migrate westward during the day on
Sunday, allowing cloud cover to expand. Could see widespread showers
and a few storms east of Interstate 65 in Kentucky, while much of
southern Indiana remains high and dry. Cloud cover will limit
diurnal temp ranges, keeping max temps well below normal, just
either side of 80. Depending on the sharpness of the edge of clouds
and precip, there could be a larger spread from SE to NW (with the
warmer temps west of I-65).
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 348 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
For the first half of next week, the synoptic pattern will be
relatively static as a blocking upper high sets up over central
Canada. Upper ridging over the southwest US will gradually build and
spread to the east by the second half of the week, which will start
to kick out a weak upper trough which sets up early in the week over
the mid-Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley. With the upper trough and
weak inverted sfc trough still over the region, there should be
enough support for daily afternoon and evening shower and storm
chances. Temperatures will very gradually warm, approaching
climatological normals in the upper 80s by late next week.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025
Strong high pressure parked over the Great Lakes continues to
dominate the weather pattern. Look for NNE winds to persist through
the TAF period, staying up just shy of 10 kt overnight, and gusting
near 20 kt during the peak heating of the day. Less diurnal Cu is
expected compared to Friday, with a sct deck around 6K feet in BWG
and nothing more than cirrus at SDF and LEX. Winds will decouple in
the evening but the boundary-layer is dry enough that fog is not a
concern heading into Sunday morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 2, 3:48 AM EDT---------------
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