IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 9:56 AM EDT491
FXUS63 KIND 311356
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower and storm chances persist through today with the greatest
chances through mid-morning
- Locally heavy rain the primary threats today
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected Friday through Sunday.
- Rain Chances return Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
The current forecast remains in good shape with only minor
adjustments made to rain chances and cloud cover. Current KIND radar
imagery shows lingering thunderstorms exiting south/southeast
portions of central Indiana and additional scattered showers over
northern portions of the area.
The stronger forcing and deeper moisture that promoted thunderstorms
overnight is beginning to shift out of the region with drier air
gradually filtering in from the north. This will lead to decreasing
rain chances, but isolated to scattered light showers are still
expected through at least the early afternoon hours due to a
shortwave overhead, broad cyclonic flow, and sufficient low-level
moisture.
Extensive clouds along with lingering light precipitation will help
to keep temperatures fairly steady in the 70s. Some locations over
the far south may warm into the low 80s though. The extensive
stratus deck over the area will slowly clear out, but most of
central Indiana is expected to remain mostly cloud today.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Today.
As of early this morning, convection has continued to slowly spread
eastwards across north central Indiana but little lightning has been
noted over the last couple of hours with model sounding showing
nearly moist adiabatic lapse rates near Lafayette with a shallow
inversion. Expect to continue to see coverage increase through
daybreak with a slight southward expansion as outflow boundaries
initiate additional convection as the LLJ continues to advect
additional moisture into the area. Coverage should peak during the
pre-dawn to early daybreak hours. With these showers and storms
showing modest eastward movement of 20-30 mph, the flooding threat
so far has been fairly minimal with periods of heavy rain remaining
brief.
The bulk of the rain will exit the forecast area during the morning
hours which coincides with the LLJ weakening and the front pushing
southeastward. Some residual light rain on the backend of the system
will continue through at least the late morning if not early
afternoon hours, but otherwise much more pleasant conditions will be
working into the forecast area with steady-state temperatures in the
low to mid 70s for all but the far southern counties along with
gradually dropping dew points.
Tonight.
Surface moisture will continue to decrease through the night which
will help to bring overnight lows into the upper 50s to low 60s
along with decreasing cloud cover as the drier air advects in aloft
and the front continues to push further away. Can't rule out a stray
shower in the far southeastern counties during the early overnight,
but have fairly good confidence in dry weather across the forecast
area.
&&
.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 315 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Friday through Sunday...
Models still remain in track for a fantastic weather weekend ahead
with mostly sunny/mostly clear skies and much lower humidity. Strong
ridging upstream of Indiana over the Rockies is still expected to
lead to northwest flow and lee side subsidence across the Upper
Midwest spilling into the Ohio Valley. This will allow for the
generation of a strong and large area of surface high pressure over
the Great Lakes that will dominate the weather for the weekend
across the northeast quadrant of the nation. Forecast soundings
through the weekend show a dry column with subsidence with a dry and
cool easterly surface flow. Thus the continued as advertised
pleasant weekend remains on track with highs in the upper 70s and
lower 80s, low humidity and lows around 60.
Monday through Wednesday...
Rain chances will need to be continued during this period as several
factors continue to remain in play as our pleasant surface high
departs to the east. The first factor contributing to this will be
the development of southerly surface winds and the arrival of more
humid air as the large surface high departs. The second factor is
aloft, as models suggest a broad upper trough pushing toward Indiana
on Monday and arriving on Tuesday. A wave of forcing dynamics within
this flow is suggested to arrive on Monday afternoon and a second
wave is suggested to arrive on Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings
suggest periods of deep saturation through this period. By
Wednesday, the GFS has developed the broad trough over the region in
to an upper low over the region. Continued warm and moist southerly
surface flow also is suggested to remain in place. Thus daily
chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue to be needed.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 632 AM EDT Thu Jul 31 2025
Impacts:
-MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys through mid-morning with exiting showers
-Northerly to northeasterly wind gusts to 25kts this afternoon.
Discussion:
Showers with a few rumbles of thunder will continue through the mid-
morning hours with only isolated coverage at HUF and LAF after 12Z.
Cigs will generally remain MVFR with brief IFR conditions through
16Z. Vsbys will stay VFR outside of heavier showers with rain
generally coming to an end after 16Z. Cigs will then remain MVFR
through the afternoon with occasional northerly to northeasterly
gusts as high as 25kts through 00Z. Afterwards, VFR conditions
expected with gradually clearing skies.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 31, 9:56 AM EDT---------------
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