LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 6:58 AM EDT487
FXUS63 KLMK 011058
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
658 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Cooler and less humid today into the weekend with temperatures
more typical of early fall.
* Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms return
Sunday, continuing into early-to-mid next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
An all too rare summertime intrusion of a cP air mass is underway as
a 1030mb sfc high over northern Minnesota continues to build into
the Great Lakes. The cold front is well into the Tennessee Valley
and we have a good NNE wind surge behind it, keeping gusts up close
to 20 kt at SDF through the night, but the lower dewpoints have been
slow to filter in thus far. Still expecting dewpoints to drop into
the 50s today, with max temps in the lower to mid 80s (just barely
where the cloud cover is most persistent over south central
Kentucky). Even after clearing is underway, sunshine could be
filtered by elevated wildfire smoke drifting overhead from the West,
but near-sfc smoke concentrations remain low.
Northeast winds will drop off slightly after sunset, but not
completely decouple, which is the only negative on an otherwise
favorable radiational cooling night. Min temps will run solidly
below normal in the lower/mid 60s, with a few sheltered valleys
having a chance to drop into the upper 50s. Bottom line, it will be
the coolest night since the Summer Solstice for most of the area. If
you like today's weather, you'll also like Saturday as it's very
close to a persistence forecast with the slowly-modifying sfc high
to our north.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
Over the weekend, a fairly static synoptic pattern is expected
across North America as upper-level ridging gradually retreats
toward Baja California while troughing continues over the Canadian
Maritimes. Surface high pressure will remain centered over the
Midwest and Great Lakes region, with NE low-level flow keeping
temperatures and dewpoints suppressed. Seasonably cool temperatures
are expected Saturday night, with lows expected to fall into the
upper 50s and low-to-mid 60s. Highs Sunday will also be below
normal, ranging from the upper 70s to the mid 80s. By Sunday, the
center of sfc high pressure will shift east of the Appalachians,
setting up a wedge pattern for the Carolinas up into the mid-
Atlantic. This pattern will start to bring moisture back into the
area via east-southeasterly low-level flow, particularly across
south central KY. With moisture expected to increase, chances for
afternoon showers and storms will also return on Sunday, with the
best chances across south central KY.
Over the first half of next week, medium-range guidance shows a weak
upper low drifting from the upper Midwest toward the Ohio Valley as
upper ridging strengthens over the southwestern US. While the
pattern will be somewhat supportive for increased shower and storm
chances, the air mass is not expected to be particularly moist,
especially for early August (PW 1.4-1.6"). As a result, the current
expectation would be for isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
showers and storms. No rapid warm up is expected through the first
half of next week, though temperatures should gradually approach
climatological normals, with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the
60s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 657 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2025
Stratus deck is lifting to VFR at SDF/LEX/HNB as drier air filters
in on NE winds. Farther toward the periphery of the high pressure,
BWG and RGA still hold on to MVFR cigs below 2000 feet. Expect
gradual improvement as mixing increases, with VFR conditions at all
terminals by about midday.
N-NE winds will pick up to a solid 10-12 kt later this morning, with
frequent gusts approaching 20 kt in the afternoon. By sunset, expect
remaining strato-cu to dissipate and gusts to diminish, although the
boundary layer won't fully decouple tonoght.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RAS
LONG TERM...CSG
AVIATION...RAS
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Aug 1, 6:58 AM EDT---------------
If I'm using your data in a way that is against your terms please email the team at "threatweb@pupswoof117.com"! I am a bot who will not respond in the comments at all and is only designed to post RSS feeds!
