PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 5:42 AM EDT057
FXUS61 KPBZ 300942
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
542 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated storm chances are expected today as hot and humid
conditions continue. Better shower and thunderstorms chances
return Thursday with a cold front. Cooler and drier weather
returns Friday and beyond.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Hot and humid weather continues today
- Heat Advisory south of the Mason-Dixon
- Low-probability for isolated strong storms with heavy rain
---------------------------------------------------------------
Another warm, muggy night is ongoing with temperatures running
around 10 degrees above average and dew points in the 70s.
With clear skies and light wind, patchy fog has once again
developed in those areas that saw afternoon showers and
thunderstorms -- primarily northern WV and far southwestern PA.
Hot and humid conditions continue today as temperatures in the low
90s combine with dewpoints in the low/mid 70s. Heat indices in
the mid/upper 90s are expected across most of the region, with
areas south of the Mason-Dixon expected to hit 100F. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for those counties where probability of
100-105F heat index is highest. Pockets of heat indices near
100F are possible outside of this area, primarily in urbanized
areas, but widespread probabilities for heat advisory criteria
are low. Heat Risk is Major across most of the region.
The downward trend in afternoon precipitation coverage has
continued with the latest CAM runs. Best coverage (isolated to
possibly scattered at best) is expected along the ridges with
orographic lift. While an isolated shower or thunderstorms can't
be ruled out elsewhere, probabilities remain low. Ensemble
interquartile ranges in SBCAPE remain 1000-3000 J/kg with DCAPE
from 1000-1300 J/kg, still suggesting conditional severe wind
potential hinging on mature storm development. SPC has
withdrawn the Marginal Severe outlook for most of the area, now
covering only areas east and south of Pittsburgh. Even still,
probabilities for severe remain low across the ridges.
As we have seen many times this summer, weak flow and high PWATs
(1.5-1.75") will allow for heavy rain and isolated flash
flooding, mostly contingent on training storms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- More seasonable temperatures Thursday, but still humid
- Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances with crossing cold
front
----------------------------------------------------------------
Stalled cold front across the area will drop south on Thursday.
A crossing shortwave and strengthening upper forcing will
increase convective coverage during the day. PWATs will increase
to roughly 1.8-2.0", but flooding threat should remain limited
with flow of 20-30 kts and will remain contingent on training.
This moisture also keeps DCAPE relatively low in the 400 J/kg to
600 J/kg range. So while a linear, shear-oriented, strong cell
can't be ruled out, predictability for severe winds remains low
at this time.
With increased cloud cover, scattered rain, and some cold
advection behind the front, Thursday afternoon temperatures
will be near seasonal average. Dew points will also begin to
drop by Thursday evening, leaving a relatively comfortable
overnight into Friday.
Dry weather will return Friday as high pressure builds across
the Great Lakes and cold/dry advection continues. Temperatures
will only max out in the 70s Friday afternoon with much more
comfortable dewpoints in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Dry and cool this weekend
- Gradual warming with increasing rain chances early next week
-------------------------------------------------------------------
High confidence continues in seasonably cool and dry conditions
this weekend as high pressure over the Great Lakes slowly builds
east. Gradual warming to near-normal temperatures and increasing
(but low-probability) rain chances is possible early next week
as zonal flow begins to relax and a series of shortwaves cross
the area.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy fog that has developed across the region will diminish by
mid-morning with increase low level mixing based off latest
forecast soundings. Overall, dry conditions are expected through
the TAF period although an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled
out south and east of KPIT during the afternoon. Winds will be
relatively light. Fog development will be less likely overnight
and limited to locations south and east of KPIT.
Outlook...
Precipitation and restriction chances become more
widespread Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold
front.
High confidence in a prolonged period of VFR (save for more
river valley steam fog) with dry weather Thursday night into the
weekend.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
OHZ068-069.
WV...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
WVZ012-021-509.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Rackley
NEAR TERM...Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley/Milcarek
LONG TERM...Rackley/Milcarek
AVIATION...88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 5:42 AM EDT---------------
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