IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 6:16 AM EDT563
FXUS63 KIND 301016
AFDIND
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog through daybreak
- Heat Advisory along and south of I-70 11 AM through 8PM
- Showers and storms late today into tonight, locally heavy rain the
primary threat
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected Friday through Sunday
&&
.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Today.
As of early this morning, conditions remain quiet with mostly clear
skies. Fog coverage has been minimal with the drier surface air.
That being said, with near calm winds, mostly clear skies, and dew
point depressions gradually decreasing, pockets of fog are likely to
form towards sunrise even as model guidance shows little to no fog
formation. Coverage will be much lower compared to Tuesday morning,
but there could be some minor impacts in more favored fog formation
zones. The weather will remain quiet for much of the day today as
the ridge gradually becomes suppressed by a convective system across
Nebraska/Iowa.
Forecast confidence today is fairly low with much of the uncertainty
depending on the track and longevity of the ongoing convection
across Iowa. Models have been strongly suggesting that this complex
will weaken and eventually dissipate towards daybreak but with
modest instability out ahead of the storms, this complex is more
likely than not going to outlast the model solutions. The theta-e
axis would keep the majority of the convection north of the forecast
area through the day but outflow boundaries moving south may be
initiation points towards the afternoon and evening. Better chances
for convection across central Indiana look to be later into the
overnight as the subtle front/outflow boundary begins to shift
southward as a stronger upper level wave moves in aloft.
No changes planned to the ongoing Heat Advisory. Temperatures will
have no issue rising into the low to potentially mid 90s again
today. Dew points will be a bit lower today compared to yesterday
which would put heat index values on the lower end of criteria but
with this going on Day 8 of much warmer than normal temperatures,
the cumulative impacts of the heat continue to increase. Cloud cover
across the northern counties due to overnight convection should
limit the higher-end values.
Tonight.
As the front dips southward, rain chances will increase through the
late evening into overnight hours with the potential for flooding as
thunderstorms will be moving eastward along the front which will
bring multiple hours of moderate to locally heavy rain. Confidence
in this heavier rain will be along and north of I-70 with the
expected storm coverage lower further south. Additional showers and
storms are likely to continue into Thursday before the front fully
pushes south of the forecast area and the long-advertised relief
from the heat arrives.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Thursday...
As Thursday begins, an upper wave will be over Indiana, along with
surface low pressure expected near the Ohio River. The weak
boundary, which will be a focus for convection, will have pushed
farther south, closer to the Ohio river. Lingering moisture and
showers may still be across the area as the day begins. Forecast
soundings show a nearly saturated column through mid-day, with mid
level subsidence not arriving until the afternoon. HRRR continues to
suggest lingering showers across the area in the morning. Thus high
pops are expected to be in place on Thursday along with cloudy
skies. Northeasterly surface winds and cold air advection will be in
place on Thursday, leading to much cooler highs in the upper 70s to
near 80.
Friday through Sunday...
A great summer weekend is ahead. Strong ridging in place aloft over
the Rockies will result in subsidence across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This will result in the development of a strong surface
high pressure system that will be slowly moving through the Great
Lakes to the northeast through the weekend. This high pressure
system will provide a flow of cooler and less humid, continental air
on northeasterly winds. Forecast soundings show a very dry column
indicative of mostly clear skies. Thus expect a super pleasant
weekend with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the upper 50s to
around 60s.
Monday and Tuesday...
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the
forecast on Monday and Tuesday. The first factor contributing to
this will be the departing area of high pressure. As the large
surface high departs by Monday, winds will become southerly,
allowing the return of more humid southerly flow from the gulf. The
second factor is aloft. Models suggest a broad upper trough pushing
toward Indiana on Monday and arriving on Tuesday. These factors will
at least necessitate the need for at least chance pops.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025
Impacts:
- Brief IFR to LIFR vsbys due to fog through 13Z
- Showers and storms late today into tonight, highest chances at LAF
- MVFR cigs after 06Z
Discussion:
Any ongoing fog will dissipate by 13Z with VFR conditions and mostly
clear skies expected for much of today. Rain will move in late today
into tonight initially at LAF with coverage increasing towards
daybreak tomorrow at the terminals to the south. Little to no rain
may impact BMG. Cigs will become predominately MVFR after 06Z
tonight with brief IFR conditions also possible. Winds will
generally remain northerly at 3-7kts through the TAF period.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
for INZ045>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...White
Source:
IND issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 30, 6:16 AM EDT---------------
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