PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 4:49 AM EDT535
FXUS61 KPBZ 280849
AFDPBZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
449 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather is expected through Tuesday under high
pressure. A few afternoon thunderstorms are possible today
mainly across Ohio. Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday
and Thursday with the approach and passage of a cold front.
Cooler and less humid weather is expected after the passage of
the front.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Fog and stratus this morning
- Hot and humid
- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across Ohio
---------------------------------------------------------------
Areas of fog and stratus will continue early this morning with
low level moisture in place. This should gradually diminish as
mixing begins after sunrise.
A strong upper high is expected to be centered across the
Central CONUS to the Mississippi Valley region today. Low level
ridging and capping warmth aloft should keep much of the area
east of I-77 dry today. A weak shortwave on the NE periphery of
the high is progged to drop SE across Ohio this afternoon.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
with this wave, as the cap is expected to be weaker across that
area.
500mb heights are progged from 592-594dm today, as 850mb
temperatures rise to near 20 deg C. This should result in high
temperature reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s for much of the
area today, with heat index values in the lower to mid 90s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Hot and humid through Wednesday
- Showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon and night
----------------------------------------------------------------
Weak surface high pressure is expected too maintain mainly dry
weather through Tuesday, as the strong upper high remains
centered across the central CONUS. Capping warmth aloft should
also preclude shower/thunderstorm development. Tuesday will
likely be the hottest day of the week, with highs ranging from
90 to 95 outside of the higher terrain areas. These
temperatures, when combined with dew points in the lower 70s,
should result in heat index values in the mid to upper 90s,
with a few locations near 100.
The upper high is expected to retrograde WSW by Wednesday, as a
shortwave trough tracks SE from the Upper Great Lakes/Midwest
region. This trough, and its associated surface cold front, is
progged to approach and cross the Upper Ohio Valley region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will increase, especially Wednesday afternoon and night, as the
surface front crosses the area. The best upper level support is
expected to arrive behind the surface front, with generally
scattered activity along the front itself. MLCAPE is progged to
range from 1500-2000 j/kg, with 0-6km shear around 30kt. Dry
air aloft is also expected, which could result in a wind gust
potential.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:
- Showers and thunderstorms continue Thursday
- Dry, cooler and less humid weather expected late week through the
weekend
-------------------------------------------------------------------
The surface front should temporarily stall across the Ohio
Valley on Thursday as the upper trough digs across the Upper
Ohio Valley region. Showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms,
are expected to continue as the upper trough crosses, and a
surface wave develops and tracks along the front. Showers should
diminish Thursday night as the trough and surface front exit.
Model ensembles then indicate a trough will persist across the
NE CONUS Friday through the weekend, as strong surface high
pressure builds across the Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley
region. This should result in dry, cooler, and much less humid
conditions Friday through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Areas of LIFR to IFR fog that has developed overnight with
light wind and saturated low levels should diminish mid-
morning with increased mixing. VFR will follow with a relatively
light southwesterly wind with high pressure in control.
An isolated shower/storm over eastern Ohio late this afternoon/
early evening could impact ZZV, but the probabilities are too
low for inclusion the TAFs at this time.
Outlook...
Cig/vis restrictions return Wednesday with a cold front.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WM
NEAR TERM...WM
SHORT TERM...WM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...Hefferan/CL/88
Source:
PBZ issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 4:49 AM EDT---------------
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