PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 11:43 PM CDT841
FXUS63 KPAH 280443
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat and humidity will continue through Tuesday and
possibly into Wednesday. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect
for the entire Quad State Monday and Tuesday, and an Extreme
Heat Watch remains in effect for Wednesday.
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
throughout the Quad State this afternoon, and may return for
much of the region Monday. The best chances Monday will be in
west Kentucky.
- A cold front is expected to break the heatwave Wednesday night
into Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs Friday through
next Sunday will be in the lower to middle 80s, with much
lower humidity!
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
Updated aviation section for 06z TAF issuance.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
The NBM continues to indicate much hotter and humid conditions
across the Quad State Monday and Tuesday, as a 597DM 500mb high
builds overhead. Given that the Extreme Heat Watch has been out
for 48 hours and the forecast remains consistent, we have
upgraded the Watch to a Warning for both days.
The ridge quickly gets squeezed between cyclonic westerlies
over the Great Lakes and a weak upper low over the southeast on
Wednesday. However, the ridge will remain right overhead, so
given some variance in guidance in how quickly a cold front
pushes into the area, and how widespread convection will be, we
decided to hold onto the Extreme Heat Watch for Wednesday. If
the front and convection hold off through most of the afternoon,
heat indices could reach 110 one more time.
Low clouds have once again impacted much of the Quad State
today. The clouds are thickest this afternoon across the
southern third of the region, where upper 70 to 80 degree
dewpoints are returning. The clouds are holding temperatures
down enough to keep the heat index in the 100 to 105 range this
afternoon. There still is time for a bit more sunshine to give a
jolt to temperatures, too.
The active convective boundary this afternoon runs parallel and
just south of I-70 in IL/IN. The storms up there are moving
slowly east, so they should stay north/northeast of the
Evansville Tri State. There is quite a bit of agitate cu with
the better moisture in the south, but that activity should be
fairly short-lived and isolated due to the lack of a boundary or
shear. Some isolated gusty winds will be possible along with
the brief torrential rains and lightning.
Convection should dissipate by/before sunset, but there are some
signs of isolated convection developing, mainly in the east,
overnight into Monday morning. Not real sure I want to believe
guidance in this respect, but we did add in some small PoPs
beginning near sunrise and then through the morning, mainly in
the southeast. There could be more isolated to scattered
development in the afternoon as well, but it seems to be more in
the early afternoon. Northwest portions of the region should
stay dry Monday. The storms in the heat of the day will have the
gusty wind, torrential rain, and lightning concerns.
Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry, but convection is likely to
return from the north Wednesday night into Thursday. There
remains some variance in how soon the active surface boundary
will arrive to focus convection, and how fast the deeper dry air
will arrive to bring an end to the convective potential for a
day or two. At this time, some isolated convection could linger
into Friday across southern portions of the region. Friday night
through Saturday should be dry throughout the region.
It appears that the active convective boundary will sag south of
any reasonable westerly flow aloft, so storms late week will
continue to have the brief heavy rainfall, gusty wind, and
lightning concerns.
Hang in there, just 3 more days of the absurd heat and humidity
left...for this round.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
VFR conditions expected overnight at TAF sites except KMVN,
where MVFR fog is possible between 08z-12z. SCT035-040 cumulus
expected after 14z at all sites. Convection is possible
tomorrow midday/afternoon, with slightly better chances at
KEVV/KOWB/KPAH, so included PROB30 at these sites only for now.
Winds will be variable around 5 kts or less through the TAF
period.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
ILZ075>078-080>094.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ Monday to 8 PM
CDT /9 PM EDT/ Tuesday for INZ081-082-085>088.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for KYZ001>022.
Extreme Heat Warning from noon Monday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for
KYZ001>022.
Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
evening for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...RST
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 11:43 PM CDT---------------
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