JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 4:36 AM EDT047
FXUS63 KJKL 280836
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
436 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Peak afternoon heat indices will be around 95 to 105 degrees
this afternoon, and are expected to reach 100 to 110 degrees in
most places Tuesday and Wednesday.
- There is a possibility of showers and thunderstorms at times
through the next week, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours
on most days. They could bring isolated heavy rainfall on
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and possibly Friday.
- A cold front Thursday should bring some relief from heat and
humidity late week through at least next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
The center of expansive upper ridging across the Southern U.S. will
move from the Southeast and Gulf Coast to the South-Central U.S.
over the next couple of days. While the mid-level jet stream will
remain well north of the region, smaller-scale upper and mid-
level disturbances will break off from the zonal flow to the north
and push south and southeast across the Ohio River Valley.
One such disturbance is situated over north-central and central
Kentucky currently, and will move slowly south through the day
within weak north to northwesterly flow aloft. Another day of
moderate instability and high PWs will mean another afternoon and
evening of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms capable
of producing locally heavy rain, with a low-end (i.e., Marginal)
risk for excessive rainfall leading to possible flash flooding.
Drier air moves into the region as shortwave ridging builds over the
Ohio River Valley tonight into Tuesday between disturbances. This
will mean lower PWs and a lesser risk for showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday, with best chances toward the Virginia
border and lowest chances for the northwestern part of the
forecast area.
While PoPs and cloud cover look to be lower overall Tuesday compared
to previous days, temperatures and continued high surface humidity
will allow for heat indices to reach well above 100 degrees, and
possibly as high as 110 degrees for some locations. A Heat
Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon and early evening
for lower to mid 90s surface temperatures and dew points in the
mid-70s resulting in widespread 100 to 110 degree heat indices.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 436 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
Upper ridging begins to break down Tuesday night into Wednesday
ahead of a stronger mid-level disturbance racing toward and across
the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will push a cold
front south across the region through the day Thursday, and bring a
major pattern change of cooler, drier, and more stable conditions
lasting for the remainder of the long-term period.
Wednesday looks to be the last day of major heat and humidity, with
the potential to see even slightly higher heat indices than Tuesday,
with widespread 100 to 110 degree readings. Confidence is high
enough in this forecast to issue the Heat Advisory ending at 8 PM
EDT Wednesday evening. Best forcing for precipitation looks to
actually arrive in the early to mid-evening period, with activity
possibly extending into the overnight along and ahead of the
front, with an additional round of showers and storms Thursday
afternoon and evening for those areas remaining along and south
of the front as it moves south, with the front likely fully
through the area by around midnight Thursday night and ending
precipitation from north to south.
Much of the remainder of the period will then be characterized by
fairly fast low-level easterly flow while mid-level disturbances
move east-southeast through the center of the country toward the
Tennessee Valley and southern parts of the Ohio Valley region.
Low-level lee troughing over or near eastern Kentucky and the west
side of the Central and Southern Appalachians may serve as the
focus of isolated to scattered showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms, but these will occur within an overall cooler, less
humid, and more stable regime than what we had become accustomed
to over the last couple of weeks.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2025
A mix of conditions are noted across the area at TAF issuance,
with low clouds and patchy fog the culprits for the restrictions,
especially at KSYM. Elsewhere, the valley fog may affect the
terminals, especially if cloud cover is able to thin out (which it
may struggle to do, initially). Winds will remain variable to
southwesterly at 7 kts or less, through the period, except for the
possibility of erratic and gusty winds adjacent to thunderstorms
- which will likely redevelop in a few places by midday.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 28, 4:36 AM EDT---------------
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