PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 4:24 AM CDT530
FXUS63 KPAH 270924
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
424 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dangerous heat will linger through Wednesday with heat index
values ranging from 105 to 115 degrees, with the peak indices
expected on Monday and Tuesday.
- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms can be expected across the
Quad State area this afternoon, during peak heating. Coverage
may be a bit more than Saturday and the chances are around
30-45%. Heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning are the main
threats.
- A cold front is expected to break the heatwave Wednesday
night into Thursday, bringing cooler temperatures and a better
chance for showers and thunderstorms. Lower humidity values
can the be expected for Friday and Saturday!
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025
A thunderstorm complex moving through central Illinois this morning
will layout an outflow boundary that is expected to sag southward
through the CWA this afternoon. Increased deep-layer moisture and
proximity to that boundary will help to increase afternoon
thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Hi-res guidance is a bit more
widespread this afternoon than it was for Saturday afternoon. The
main threats with any of the storms will be very heavy rainfall
potential and a localized flooding threat. Precipitable water values
are still progged to be around 2-2.5 inches, which is again
supportive of very heavy downpours across the area. Gusty winds will
also be possible under any collapsing thunderstorms, but organized
severe weather is not anticipated with less than 10kts of shear.
Any storms or cloud cover will help to cool temperatures down in
localized areas anyway today, but it will still be very hot until
the storms occur. The upper-level ridge will build back stronger for
the first half of next week, bringing hotter temperatures/heat
indices than we saw this past week. In fact, many locations could
see heat index values pushing up to or even higher than 110 degrees
for Monday and Tuesday as actual temperatures approach 100 degrees!!
A cold front remains on track to bring the entire area some relief
for Wednesday night into Thursday with more widespread shower and
storm activity. That system will be followed by a much drier surface
high pressure system as temperatures drop down into the 80s for a
change!!! The more comfortable conditions will linger into next
weekend!
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 422 AM CDT
Sun Jul 27 2025
VFR conditions are expected to be in place through much of this
TAF issuance. The exception will be later this morning through
the afternoon as diurnal showers and storms develop. Confidence
in exact timing and impacts are low, so kept the PROB30 group
with this issuance. Some ground fog may briefly reduce
visibility late tonight, especially at the OWB/EVV TAF sites,
but it can't be ruled out at the remaining sites.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for ILZ075>078-080>094.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for ILZ075>078-080>094.
MO...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.
IN...Heat Advisory until noon CDT /1 PM EDT/ Monday for INZ081-082-
085>088.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for INZ081-082-085>088.
KY...Heat Advisory until noon CDT Monday for KYZ001>022.
Extreme Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...KC
AVIATION...KC
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 27, 4:24 AM CDT---------------
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