National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 1A for POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE INTERMEDIATE118
WTNT31 KNHC 172335
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012024
700 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024
...SYSTEM FORECAST TO CAUSE HEAVY RAINS AND COASTAL FLOODING
IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TEXAS BEGINNING ON TUESDAY...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 93.0W
ABOUT 375 MI...620 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the
Rio Grande
* The northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio
Grande to Boca de Catan.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined disturbance was
centered near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 93.0 West. The system
is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday night or Wednesday,
and system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late
Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to to become a tropical storm
by Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.
The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds
extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the
center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches)
based on Air Force Reserve dropsonde data.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into
southeastern Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This
rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with
new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in
areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sargent, TX to Sabine Pass, TX...2-4 ft
Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Sargent, TX...1-3 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...1-3 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the north of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
In Mexico, minor coastal flooding is possible north of where the
center of the disturbance crosses the coast in areas of onshore
winds.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by Wednesday.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Source:
National Hurricane Center issues ADVISORY 1A for POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE INTERMEDIATE---------------
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