CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:28 AM EDT293
FXUS61 KCLE 181128
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will linger across the Ohio Valley as high
pressure builds from the north today. This front will gradually
lift back north on Saturday, followed by a cold front on
Sunday. High pressure will build back into the area on Monday
and shift towards New England by Tuesday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We are starting off this morning with high pressure building
down from the Upper Great Lakes and southern Ontario. There is
a stationary front located just south of the I-70 corridor.
Slightly drier and a more comfortable airmass is advecting in on
northerly breezes. Surface dewpoints have dropped into the
lower 60s near the lakeshore. Overall the weather will be
quiet today. Closer to the stalled front, there could be some
showers and thunderstorms south of Highway 30 today near Central
Ohio. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to near 80
degrees. The weather will remain quiet tonight with low
temperatures back in the lower to middle 60s.
Saturday and Saturday night is looking potentially more
unsettled and stormy. A shortwave trough will track through the
Upper Great Lakes on Saturday. The stalled out front across
central Ohio and will lift northward as a warm front on
Saturday. MLCAPE values will approach 1500 J/KG if not a little
more Saturday afternoon. Bulk shear values will be around 35
knots. PW values will climb to around 2 inches. The setup is
indicating the risk for some strong to severe thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon into the late evening hours. SPC has the
entire area highlighted in a day 2 slight risk for severe
convection. All modes of severe weather may be possible with
damaging winds being the main threat followed by marginal large
hail. There is a very low threat for an isolated tornado or two.
Heavy rainfall and an isolated flash flooding threat will be
possible. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the middle to
upper 80s. The strong to severe convection will lingering into
the evening hours before slowly dissipating later Saturday
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The frontal boundary will waffle back southward as a weak cold
front on Sunday. Before it clears through our central Ohio
counties Sunday, there will be a chance for scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly south of Highway 30. High temperatures
on Sunday will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Another area
of high pressure will build down across the Great Lakes region
Sunday night into Monday. Mainly fair weather conditions are
expected Sunday night and Monday. High temperatures on Monday
will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
By the middle of next week, an upper level ridge of high
pressure will shift into the Mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio
Valley. Our local area will be on the northern edge of this
upper level dome of high pressure. We will also have a weak
stalled frontal boundary across the Great Lakes region kinda
waffling around through mid week. This weather pattern will
bring much warmer weather and a risk for some convection from
disturbances riding over the upper level ridge or "ridge riders"
middle of next week. High temperatures will climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s. The heat index values may approach the upper
90s to near 100 degrees by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
W'erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances affect our
region through 12Z/Sat. Scattered to broken mid-level and
especially upper-level cloudiness will precede the axes of the
disturbances. At the surface, a ridge continues to affect our
region today and then begins to exit E'ward between 00Z and
12Z/Sat as the parent high pressure center moves from the
northwestern Great Lakes toward southern New England. Farther
south, a front should waver slightly in a north-south manner
near the OH River through 06Z/Sat as weak lows move generally
E'ward along the front. The front should then begin to sweep
NE'ward as a warm front and into our region through 12Z/Sat as
a somewhat stronger low moves generally E'ward across the
northern Great Plains and toward the Upper MS Valley.
The ridge is expected to allow primarily fair weather and VFR
visibility to affect northern OH and NW PA through the TAF
period. However, isolated showers and thunderstorms with brief
MVFR to IFR should impact our region through this early
evening, especially in NW OH and roughly along and south of the
U.S. Route 30 corridor, as the aforementioned disturbances
interact with the aforementioned front at the surface and aloft.
Our regional surface winds are expected to be around 5 to 10
knots and mainly NE'erly and E'erly through 00Z/Sat. Thereafter,
our regional surface winds are expected to be near 5 knots and
much more variable in direction through 12Z/Sat.
A sufficiently cold/moist low-level air mass over/downwind of
~78F Lake Erie is expected to allow lake-effect stratocumuli and
associated ceilings near 1.5kft to 3.5kft AGL to impact all TAF
sites at times through ~14Z/Fri amidst N'erly to NE'erly mean
low-level flow over/downwind of the lake. After ~14Z/Fri,
daytime heating and lingering low-level moisture from recent
rainfall should allow widespread cumuli and associated
borderline VFR/MVFR ceilings to develop across our region.
Nocturnal cooling-related stabilization of the boundary layer
is expected to allow the cumuli to dissipate between 22Z/Fri and
~00Z/Sat. Note: mainly clear sky, weak surface winds, and
lingering low-level moisture from recent rainfall should allow
areas of radiation fog to impact northern OH between ~08Z/Sat
and 12Z/Sat, including KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.
Outlook...Scattered and therefore periodic showers and
thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Saturday through this
Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds of 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected
on Lake Erie through this Tuesday. A ridge affects Lake Erie
today before the ridge begins to exit E'ward tonight as the
parent high pressure center moves from the northwestern Great
Lakes to eastern NY. In addition, a warm front is expected to
sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie tonight through Saturday as a
weak low moves generally E'ward from the northern Great Plains
to central Lower MI. Accordingly, primarily NE'erly winds veer
to SW'erly with the warm front passage. As the low moves farther
E'ward toward northern New England Saturday night, the trailing
cold front sweeps SE'ward across Lake Erie and causes SW'erly
winds to veer to NW'erly to N'erly. Behind the cold front,
another ridge should affect Lake Erie this Sunday through
Tuesday and cause winds to veer gradually to E'erly to SE'erly.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...77
NEAR TERM...77
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 18, 7:28 AM EDT---------------
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