MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 1:35 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...837
FXUS64 KMOB 131835
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
135 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Generally typical afternoon and evening showers and storms
continue to be expected across the region through early this week
as upper ridging remains overhead. This will allow for
temperatures to be quite hot with daytime highs in the middle to
upper 90's, hottest Tuesday, and overnight lows in the middle 70's
through Tuesday night. While afternoon dewpoints are expected to
mix out quite a bit thanks to continued northerly winds and dry
air aloft, the hot temperatures combined with lower 70's
dewpoints should allow for heat indices to rise into the 100 to
108 range, warmest Tuesday. Heat indices should overall remain
near or below heat advisory criteria, however heat risk values
around 3 area- wide Tuesday would suggest a heat advisory may be
needed for the forecast area. Subsequent shifts will continue to
assess the latest forecast guidance for any need for heat
products.
As we move into the middle of the week all eyes turn towards the
Gulf as an inverted trough/area of low pressure moves offshore the
western coast of the Florida Peninsula. Model guidance has become
a bit more enthused overall on the potential for development into
a tropical system, but development probabilities still remain low
at this time. There is still substantial variability between the
various models and their ensembles on if development occurs, how
strong it could get, and where it would eventually go. Regardless
of development, there will be a significant increase in rain
chances with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
Wednesday through Friday. This may open the door for some flash
flooding potential depending on where any storms train over areas
repeatedly, particularly nearer the coast. Additionally, there
will be an increase in surf heights and rip currents along area
beaches which will pose an increasing risk for anyone venturing
into the water mid to late week. The rip current risk increases to
a Moderate risk by Wednesday and a High risk Wednesday night into
Thursday. Temperatures cool off quite a bit with the increased
cloud cover and rain chances keeping highs generally in the upper
80's to perhaps lower 90's with overnight lows still staying warm
in the lower to middle 70's.
Heading into the weekend we return to our more typical summer-time
cadence with upper ridging building in and rain chances returning
to isolated to scattered coverage. Temperatures begin to rebound
back into the lower to middle 90's for highs and heat indices once
again enter the 100 to 108 range. MM/25
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
Isolated to potentially scattered convection develops through mid
afternoon then diminishes by early evening. MVFR conditions will
accompany the stronger showers and storms with VFR conditions
otherwise anticipated to prevail. A southerly to southwesterly
flow at 5-10 knots this afternoon becomes light and variable this
evening, then a northwesterly flow near 5 knots develops Monday
morning. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025
No marine impacts are expected through the early part of the week
outside of locally higher winds and seas in/near any storms. Winds
will follow the typical diurnal pattern through early this week.
By mid to late week, attention turns to a tropical disturbance in
the northeastern gulf that will track westward across the northern
gulf. Regardless of development, increasing onshore winds and seas
can be expected Wednesday through Friday, with winds likely
approaching or exceeding small craft exercise caution levels
during this timeframe in the 15 to 20 knot range. MM/25
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 94 75 96 75 94 73 89 / 10 30 0 40 20 70 50 90
Pensacola 77 94 79 96 78 92 76 88 / 10 30 10 40 40 80 60 90
Destin 79 94 81 95 79 91 79 89 / 10 30 10 50 50 80 60 90
Evergreen 72 96 74 97 74 95 73 90 / 20 20 10 30 20 60 30 80
Waynesboro 72 96 72 96 74 96 72 91 / 10 30 0 20 10 50 20 70
Camden 73 94 74 96 74 94 73 90 / 10 20 0 20 20 50 20 80
Crestview 73 97 75 97 74 94 73 89 / 10 30 10 60 20 80 40 90
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 13, 1:35 PM CDT ...New Discussion, Marine...---------------
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