MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 6:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation...444
FXUS64 KMOB 092333
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
The upper ridge over the far southeast states will continue to
breakdown as the base of an upper trough situated just west of
the Mississippi River shifts eastward over our region. The upper
trough then gradually weakens and lifts northward late in the
week, followed by a large upper high pressure area building over
the entire southeast CONUS over the weekend and into early next
week. A surface ridge remains in place over the northern Gulf
through the period, and promotes a light southwesterly to westerly
flow over the forecast area. The highest chance of rain looks to
occur on Friday as the axis of the upper trough settles over our
area, with numerous to widespread afternoon showers and storms
expected. Otherwise, the typical diurnal pattern continues through
the forecast package, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers
and thunderstorms each day, with rain chances lowering slightly
over the weekend into early next week. We will need to monitor
for heat index concerns early next week with apparent temperatures
mostly ranging from 102-107 degrees. At this time we are not
expecting to issue any Heat Advisories as most indices should
remain below our 108 degree criteria. Pulse thunderstorms are
possible each afternoon give ample instability and minimal shear,
so we can't rule out a few strong storms with gusty winds, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning.
Beach Forecast - A LOW rip current risk will continue through the
remainder of the week and over the weekend, with the exception of
a MODERATE risk Thursday night along the western Florida Panhandle
beaches. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF cycle. Light and
variable winds are expected overnight with winds becoming
southwesterly by tomorrow afternoon. 07/mb
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025
No significant impacts to small craft are expected through early
next week outside of locally higher winds/seas and reduced
visibilities associated with occasional showers and thunderstorms.
/22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 73 92 74 91 74 92 74 94 / 20 60 30 80 20 60 10 50
Pensacola 77 92 78 91 78 91 77 93 / 20 50 30 70 20 50 10 50
Destin 80 91 80 91 80 91 79 93 / 20 40 30 60 20 50 20 50
Evergreen 72 93 72 91 72 93 72 95 / 20 70 30 80 20 60 10 50
Waynesboro 71 91 72 91 71 93 72 95 / 20 70 20 80 10 60 10 40
Camden 72 91 72 90 72 92 72 93 / 20 70 30 70 10 50 10 40
Crestview 73 94 73 91 73 93 73 94 / 10 60 20 80 20 60 10 50
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 9, 6:33 PM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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