MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 8, 12:47 AM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...007
FXUS64 KMOB 080547
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
Throughout the period, upper-level ridging attempts to build
across portions of the southeast US, however, it looks to have
some trouble establishing itself across our local area through
late week. This is due to a shortwave trough that moves in from
the northwest on Wednesday and stalls over central MS/AL. This
trough will help to keep our area underneath a weakness within the
ridge. This, along with deep moisture in place, will allow for
rain chances to increase through the week. Highest rain chances
appear to be on Thursday and Friday (generally around 60-80% away
from the immediate coast) as the shortwave makes its closest
approach. The shortwave should dissipate by Saturday, allowing for
the ridge to finally build into the area by Sunday and Monday.
This should help to lower PoPs back down to around 40-60 percent.
Activity throughout the period is expected to follow a typical
diurnal summertime pattern, with showers and storms developing
during the morning over our marine zones and along the coast,
pulse-type storms developing during the afternoon hours along the
sea breeze which spread inland via outflow boundary collisions,
and activity eventually dissipating during the evening due to the
loss of daytime heating. As we typically see with this type of
pattern, cannot rule out a few stronger storms capable of
producing gusty downburst winds and small hail, as well as very
heavy rainfall.
Highs each day will generally top out in the low to mid 90s. We
should stay just below Heat Advisory criteria through at least
Sunday, although heat indices could potentially rise to as high as
102-107 degrees in many spots. As the ridge builds into the area, we
may have our first shot at exceeding our Heat Advisory criteria
on Monday as heat indices in a few areas could climb to as high as
109. We will monitor trends over the coming days. Lows will range
from the low 70s inland to the mid to upper 70s along the coast.
The rip current risk remains low through much of the period. There
is an indication that strengthening onshore flow may help to
increase the rip current risk to a moderate risk for our Florida
beaches during the Wednesday night through Thursday night
timeframe. /96
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
General VFR conditions with light southwest to westerly winds at 05z
are expected to last through the rest of the night. Winds are
expected to shift to southerly through the day as a seabreeze
develops and moves inland. Upper end MVFR/VFR conditions are
expected through the morning into the afternoon, with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms bringing local drops in conditions to
mid/low level MVFR. Locally strong and variable winds are also
possible in and near the stronger thunderstorms. This convection is
expected to quickly decrease in coverage during the evening with the
loss of the day's heating. Also, winds well inland are expected to
become light, with westerly winds around 5 knots along and south of
I-10 expected through the evening.
/16
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025
A light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow
prevails through the week. No impacts are expected other than
locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. /96
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 74 92 73 91 74 91 74 91 / 10 50 20 70 20 60 10 50
Pensacola 77 92 78 91 78 90 77 91 / 10 40 20 60 20 50 20 40
Destin 80 92 80 91 80 91 79 91 / 10 30 20 40 20 50 20 40
Evergreen 72 94 72 93 72 92 72 93 / 20 50 20 70 30 60 20 60
Waynesboro 71 93 71 91 71 92 71 93 / 10 60 20 80 20 60 10 50
Camden 72 92 72 91 72 91 72 90 / 20 50 30 70 30 60 20 50
Crestview 73 94 73 93 73 91 73 92 / 10 50 10 80 20 70 10 60
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 8, 12:47 AM CDT ...New Aviation, Discussion, Marine...---------------
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