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834 FXUS64 KLIX 051720AFDLIXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service New Orleans LA1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE....SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Sunday night)Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025Upper ridging is thus far keeping convection mostly at bay this afternoon. With a lack of rain-cooled outflow, temperatures are currently sitting in the lower 90s most locations and should rise into the mid 90s across much of the area. Thankfully, dewpoints are starging to come down a degree or two as daytime heating has promoted vertical mixing. This has helped keep heat index values generally in the 98-102 degree range thus far. Will likely see those bump up another couple degrees before the afternoon is done,but these values are fairly typical of summers on the Gulf Coast.Any showers and storms that develop this afternoon should diminish around or shortly after sunset, with overnight lows forecast in the mid to upper 70s, which is a few degrees warmer than normal most locations.Tomorrow will see the start of a pattern change as the upper highbreaks down, being replaced by weak troughing between an upperhigh over the southwestern CONUS and a second high building overthe western Atlantic. This weakness combined with an increase inmoisture will lead to an increase in afternoon showers and storms. Whereas the POPs in today's forecast were in the 10-30% range across the area, we should see an increase into the 30-50% range for tomorrow.&&.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025No significant changes to the forecast or forecast thinking goinginto the work week. More active pattern should set up through theweek as the local area remains under the influence of a general weakness or even weak troughing in the upper levels.With the upper level weakness and increasing moisture, expect convective coverage to increase through the week, with at leastscattered showers and storms driven by mostly diurnal heating processes. By late in the week, an upper trough is forecast to diginto the middle Mississippi Valley, which should result in a further increase in convective coverage. Regarding temperatures, the increase in showers and storms shouldhelp bring afternoon highs down a degree or two, but that will still keep them slightly warmer than normal at most locations. Morning lows will similarly continue to run a couple degrees warmer normal, only dropping into the mid to upper 70s each day.As was mentioned yesterday, despite the higher rain chancesthrough the week, rainfall totals are still forecast to be generally low with totals less than 2 inches forecast over the next 7 days. However, as is the case with summertime thunderstorms, localized totals could be substantially higher, with some thunderstorms possibly producing 1-2 inches in a relatively short period of time as they pass over any given location.&&.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025VFR conditions will prevail through the period. With only isolatedconvection in the forecast for this afternoon, probability ofimpacts in any given location is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Fog was a bit more impactful than anticipated earlier this morning, but that was likely due in part to lingering smoke particles from fireworks displays. That being said shouldn't see a repeat tonight, but patchy light fog can't be ruled out. With MCB being the most likely location affected, have included a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions around daybreak. Expect an increase in convective coverage Sunday compared to today, but best chances are beyond current TAF period except for at MSY where a PROB30 group has been included after 18z.&&.MARINE...Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025Marine conditions will be benign through the period outside of anylocalized impacts from convection. Light offshore flow willpersist through the remainder of today, but will become moreerratic tonight and then shift to a more onshore direction throughthe work week. Expect convective coverage to increase through thework week as moisture and instability increase across the region.This convection should follow a typical diurnal pattern, with adaily maximum across the coastal waters during the late night andmorning hours, and minimum during the afternoon and evening hours. &&.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...MCB 72 93 71 93 / 10 50 10 50 BTR 75 95 74 93 / 10 60 20 60 ASD 73 93 72 93 / 10 50 20 50 MSY 79 94 77 93 / 20 60 20 60 GPT 73 92 74 92 / 10 40 20 40 PQL 71 93 72 93 / 10 40 20 40 &&.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...LA...None.GM...None.MS...None.GM...None.&&$$SHORT TERM...DMLONG TERM....DMAVIATION...DMMARINE...DM
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Topic: [Alert]LIX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jul 5, 12:20 PM CDT ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... (Read 554 times)
