WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 9, 1:28 PM CDT389
AGUS74 KWCO 091833
AHDNWC
Area Hydrological Discussion #162 - EXPERIMENTAL
NWS National Water Center - Tuscaloosa, AL
128 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025
POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding
WHERE: WV, Western VA, extreme northeastern TN, extreme northwestern
NC
WHEN: Through late evening
FORECAST RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
QPF: Localized 2 - 4" (WPC)
Rain Rates: 1 - 2.5"/hr (MRMS)
Soil Moisture: 50 - 70% (NASA SPoRT 0 - 10 cm RSM)
DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms will produce locally intense rainfall rates
across portions of the Central Appalachians and Blue Ridge through
the afternoon and evening hours. The potential for multiple storms to
track across the same locations could further enhance heavy rainfall
potential. Antecedent conditions are moderately moist, and streamflow
conditions are near annual medians. However, locally intense rainfall
rates could quickly overwhelm soils given the shallow depth to
bedrock and moderate clay content across the region, with the
potential for rapid runoff to generate flash, urban, and small stream
flooding.
The HRRR appears to be underpredicting the convection across the
region currently, compared to the current radar. As a result, the
HRRR-forced NWM SRF is likely underpredicting the potential for
flooding across the region this afternoon and evening, despite
showing isolated potential for rapid onset flooding. Given the
locally intense rainfall rates and areas of locally saturated soils,
the potential seems there for isolated significant flash, urban, and
small stream flooding.
GRAPHICAL REPRESENTATION weather.gov/owp/operations-ahd
Additional National Water Center products are available at
weather.gov/owp/operations
//Ryan
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...JKL...RLX...RNK...MRX...LWX
ATTN...RFC...ORN...RHA...TIR...ALR...WPC
Source:
WCO issues Area Hydrological Discussion (AHD) at Jul 9, 1:28 PM CDT---------------
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