LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 24, 7:52 PM EDT981
FXUS63 KLMK 242352
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
752 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Heat Advisory remains through Wednesday due to multiple days of
heat indices near 100 to 105 and heat indices only falling into
the mid to upper 70s at night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Currently, an upper level high sits centered over the Appalachian
Mountains near the West Virginia Virginia border. Surface high
pressure over the Southeast continues to funnel moisture up the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, resulting in high low level moisture
over southern Indiana and central Kentucky. Dew points remain mostly
in the low to mid 70s. Diurnal warming has pushed temperatures into
the low to mid 90s. The Kentucky Mesonet shows heat indices across
central Kentucky ranging from 98 to 105. Satellite imagery shows
cumulus clouds moving in an anticyclonic pattern around the low.
Additional cloud development can be seen from differential heating
across an area from Warren County to Christian County to the west.
You can also see enhancement over Lexington from the urban heat
island. In the coming hours some isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity will likely develop.
Tonight, any remaining showers/thunderstorms will come to an end
with the loss of diurnal warming, and even with light winds and
clearing skies, temperatures are only expected to fall into the 70s.
This will also lead to patchy fog across the area. The best chances
will be towards eastern Kentucky.
Tomorrow, expect more of the same as strong sunshine lifts
temperatures back into the low to mid 90s. With dew points in the
mid to upper 70s, heat indices will climb back into the upper 90s to
around 105. Believe showers and thunderstorms will be more likely as
a wave moves west before northwest away from the CWA. Chances will
be better along and north of Interstate 64, but isolated to
scattered chances will also be possible farther south throughout
central Kentucky.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025
From Thursday to Monday, expect little day to day change.
Temperatures are expected to trend slightly cooler by this weekend,
falling from the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday to the upper
80s to low 90s by the weekend. The cooler of these temperatures are
expected over the Bluegrass. Surface high pressure over the
Southeast will continue to sent moisture up the Mississippi and Ohio
Valleys as the upper ridge becomes more zonal, over the Great Lakes.
Mostly sunny days with afternoon/evening cumulus that produce
isolated to scattered rain chances.
Tuesday, model agreement continues to look fairly good as the
global models begin to form a ridge over the Rockies and a trough
over the East Coast. Northwest flow over the Lower Ohio Valley would
push a cold front towards the CWA, bringing drier air and cooler
temperatures. Highs on Tuesday fall into the mid to upper 80s.
The Heat Advisory is in place until Wednesday evening, but part or
all of it may need to be extended in the future, but with increasing
rain chances to the north and east over the next couple of days,
this could limit the extent of what is needed.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 751 PM EDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Have a few isolated TSRA this evening, most notably about 10-15
miles west and southwest of BWG. Convection will largely diminish by
01Z, and the likelihood of impacts at any one terminal is quite low.
Very light winds and mostly clear overnight, with patchy fog. Fog
appears most likely at RGA and HNB based on crossover temps.
W/SW winds will increase to 4-7 kts after 15Z Wednesday. Expect a
SCT-BKN diurnal cumulus field in the afternoon and evening with
bases around 5 kft. Isolated to widely scattered convection will be
possible.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.
IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Wednesday for
INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KDW
LONG TERM...KDW
AVIATION...EBW
Source:
LMK issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 24, 7:52 PM EDT---------------
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