Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1429 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 5%] [Most Prob: Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]066
ACUS11 KWNS 242050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242049
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-242315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Areas affected...portions of extreme northwest Pennsylvania into
extreme western New York
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242049Z - 242315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts cannot be ruled out over the
next several hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated and intensified off
of surface boundaries and confluence zones over the past couple of
hours. Deep-layer flow and shear, as well as buoyancy, are modest at
best across the region (e.g. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid less than 20 kts
of effective bulk shear). As such, a couple of brief downbursts may
cause sparse tree damage in the near-term. Relatively more robust
storms are currently tracking across extreme southeast Ontario.
These storms may cross Lake Erie a few hours for now, perhaps with a
slightly greater damaging gust threat. Nonetheless, the severe
threat should remain localized, precluding the need for a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41598064 41807996 42337916 42647894 42897892 43097892
43327874 43327847 43027842 42337838 41957850 41657862
41447895 41377948 41267988 41238016 41228040 41598064
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
Source:
Storm Prediction Center issues Mesoscale Discussion #1429 concerning SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY [watch prob: 5%] [Most Prob: Gust: UP TO 60 MPH]---------------
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