PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 11:50 PM CDT180
FXUS63 KPAH 200450
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1150 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- An extended heat wave will begin Saturday and continue through
the middle of next week. Daily peak heat index values of 100
to 107 degrees are forecast, and moderate to major heat-related
health impacts are expected.
- Small chances of thunderstorms return to the forecast over
portions of the region Tuesday through next Thursday. Locally
heavy rainfall and lightning would be the primary concerns
with any storms next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Our first stretch of heat and humidity is still in store for the
entire Quad State region Saturday through at least Wednesday,
and possibly through all of next week. However, afternoon heat
indices are only forecast to top out in the 100-105 range
through the period, which does not support a Heat Advisory on a
daily basis. If we get to 4 straight days of 100 or greater heat
indices then we would meet the longer duration threshold for an
Advisory. That would not likely occur until Tuesday for much of
the region. By then the upper ridge is weakening enough that
convection could throw a monkey wrench into the works.
High pressure aloft will build northeast over the Quad State
Friday and Saturday. South winds at the surface will be light
Friday, which will hold back moisture return, especially in the
east, while temperatures climb a bit above normal to around 90
degrees over most of the region. Saturday, south winds will
increase throughout the region as an upper disturbance moves
east through the Great Lakes. That will bring middle 70
dewpoints back over the entire area and it is game on.
In the wake of that Saturday disturbance the upper high will
build over the Ohio Valley, and surface winds will weaken. The
upper high is expected to slowly weaken through the work week,
but there is no sign of a cold front reaching the area through
next Thursday. So, in the absence of isolated convection, the
heat and humidity will continue. Any convection is likely to be
rather isolated and focused in the afternoon and evening
beginning Tuesday. In general, the coverage of convection
should increase a bit each day as the ridge weakens through
Thursday. With very weak wind fields expected, any storms next
week would likely produce brief torrential rainfall and
lightning.
We did not stray from the NBM temperatures and dewpoints through
this forecast. Its high temperatures are well to the warm side
of the guidance envelope and may be too aggressive, considering
how wet the ground is over much of the region, especially east
of the Mississippi River. However, its dewpoints are likely to
underperform for the same reason, so the resultant heat index
forecast is not likely to be far off from reality. There is a
chance that some portion of the region may need a Heat Advisory
one afternoon or the other, if upper 70 dewpoints develop. Right
now, Saturday seems to be the best bet.
This will be the first prolonged stretch of heat and humidity we
will experience this season and as such its impact could be
greater than the heat index numbers alone would suggest. People
doing outdoor work, especially weekend warrior types, will have
a greater susceptibility to the heat and humidity, even if it
doesn't technically reach Advisory criteria. This same event in
July and August would not be as impactful because we would
likely be better adjusted to the summer heat by then.
Please be smart if you need to be outside for extended periods
this weekend and through next week. Take frequent breaks in the
shade or in air conditioned areas and stay hydrated by drinking
lots of water.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025
Fog is beginning to set in beneath light winds and clear skies.
Best chances for fog are at MVN, PAH, and OWB. MVN in particular
has the best chance of IFR or lower visby restrictions. Cu will
develop on Friday with southerly winds picking up to 6-8 knots.
Winds should relax in the evening. After the morning fog
diminishes, VFR returns for all sites.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 19, 11:50 PM CDT---------------
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