MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 6:10 AM CDT ...New Aviation...572
FXUS64 KMOB 181110
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
610 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
...New Aviation...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
An upper trof over the Plains amplifies while progressing into the
eastern states through Thursday, and in the process absorbs the
remnants of a shortwave trof over the southeast states. An
associated surface low passes well north of the region and brings
a weak surface trof into the forecast area on Thursday which
drifts to near the coast Thursday night, then returns inland on
Friday. The eastern states upper trof meanwhile moves off into the
western Atlantic on Friday along with an upper ridge building
from the central states into the region. Abundant deep layer
moisture will be in place over the area through Friday, although
subsidence effects associated with the upper ridge will begin to
become apparent over interior areas by Friday. Have gone with
likely pops for today and Thursday, then for Friday will have
likely pops for the southern portion of the area with chance pops
further inland. Will continue to monitor for strong storm
development each day with gusty winds and small hail as the main
threats. The upper ridge steadily builds over the eastern states
through the weekend and persists into early next week, and the
position of the upper ridge allows for a steady series of
shortwaves to progress across the forecast area mainly from Sunday
onward as an easterly flow sets up aloft. Some vestiges of the
surface trof appear to linger over the forecast area on Saturday,
after which a surface ridge sets up over the southeastern states
and promotes a predominately easterly flow with a sea breeze
developing each day. Have gone with chance to likely pops each
day, with the higher pops over the southern portion of the area.
Highs today will be around 90, then trend gradually higher to the
lower to mid 90s by Saturday with similar values following into
Tuesday. Heat index values of 96-103 today trend higher to 100-107
for Friday through at least Tuesday and will need to monitor for
possible localized Heat Advisory concerns. A moderate risk of rip
currents is in effect for today through Thursday, after which a
low risk is expected for Friday through Sunday. /29
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
Showers and storms will gradually increase in coverage through the
early afternoon hours, then taper off during the late afternoon
into early evening hours. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible
with the stronger storms. A southerly flow at 5-10 knots develops
this morning then becomes light and variable this evening. /29
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 232 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025
A generally light and predominately onshore flow is expected
through the weekend. The environment looks to be supportive of
waterspouts in morning shower or storm activity near the coast.
/29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile 90 74 91 73 92 73 92 74 / 60 20 70 30 60 20 50 20
Pensacola 88 77 91 77 92 76 91 76 / 60 20 70 40 60 30 50 20
Destin 89 80 91 79 92 79 92 80 / 60 20 70 40 60 30 50 30
Evergreen 90 71 92 71 94 71 95 72 / 70 10 70 30 50 10 50 10
Waynesboro 92 72 93 71 92 72 94 71 / 60 20 70 20 50 10 40 10
Camden 89 71 91 71 91 71 93 72 / 70 20 70 20 40 10 30 10
Crestview 91 72 92 72 94 71 94 72 / 70 20 70 30 70 20 60 20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob
Source:
MOB issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 6:10 AM CDT ...New Aviation...---------------
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