JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 2:03 PM EDT915
FXUS63 KJKL 181803 AAC
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
203 PM EDT Wed Jun 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
Thursday, with the potential for high water or flash flooding.
- Some storms this afternoon into tonight and on Thursday could
produce strong to damaging wind gusts.
- Seasonably warm high temperatures are forecast through most of
the week, with heat then building during the weekend.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
An area of low pressure currently in the Central Conus/mid MS
Valley vicinity will track into and across the Great Lakes later
today and tonight with the trailing cold front nearing the OH
Valley. The 500 mb trough axis will also begin to approach during
that time with one or more shortwaves in advance of that to
traverse the OH Valley.
Although a good amount of cloud cover lingers across the region,
there has also been some breaks in the clouds in a few locations
and additional breaks are anticipated into the afternoon. Outside
of the higher terrain near the VA border where temperatures
linger in the mid to upper 60s, temperatures have warmed into the
mid to in some cases upper 70s. Dewpoints across most of the area
were in the low to mid 70s with some mid to upper 60s nearer to
the VA border. Given the current dewpoints, MLCAPE is currently
analyzed on the order of 500 to 1300 J/kg with low and mid level
lapse rates about 6C/km or lower. Effective shear was currently in
the 20 to 25KT range. Shear is forecast to decrease as we move
into the afternoon, while MLCAPE should peak in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range areawide as temperatures reach the low to mid 80s, with
possibly a bit higher peak MLCAPE in the west and northwest
toward late afternoon (20Z to 21Z). Low level lapse rates should
increase toward 7C/km with mid level lapse rates rising to 6 to
6.5C/km per recent RAP runs. Effective shear at 20KT or less will
be the limiting factor to greater coverage of organized cells in
the afternoon. However, some clusters of storms with a damaging
wind gust threat are possible in the afternoon to early evening as
per recent HRRR and other CAM runs, though there is uncertainty
as to the most likely location of these. Probabilistic guidance
favors the more western and northwestern location for these. A
relative lull in the activity may occur in the evening nearer to
sunset as the activity near the WV border and moves east/weakens.
However, additional activity, likely linear with an established
cold pool may approach from the west near or not long after sunset
with mainly a strong to damaging wind threat. As that activity
moves east during the late evening into the overnight it may tend
to weaken with not as much instability and forcing with eastward
and southeastward extent.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
The latest surface analysis is quieter than this time yesterday as
isolated boundaries have been consolidated into synoptic features.
The first, a surface low is moving across southern Canada with a
cold front extending to the southwest. The second, a surface low
riding along the aforementioned cold front that's parked over the
mid-Mississippi Valley. Locally, the area is parked under the warm
sector of the southern Canadian low with the warm front draped over
the Mid-Atlantic. Also, radar is starting to light up with
widespread showers that are developing across the CWA.
Through the remainder of the day, shower and thunderstorm chances
will continue to exist as the area remains in the warm sector, ahead
of an approaching cold front. As with previous days, these storms
appear to be efficient and can put down quiet a bit of rain in a
short period of time. However, PWs and forecast soundings aren't as
favorable as they were in previous forecasts but the threat for
hydro issues won't diminish for the rest of the forecast period.
While showers and thunderstorm chances continue to exist throughout
the day, the cold front, will continue to track eastward toward the
area. Through the overnight Wednesday into Thursday, the front will
track eastward and begin to cross through the Commonwealth through
the day on Thursday. Along and head of the front, showers and
thunderstorms will be likely. Some storms, with this front could
push severe limits but widespread severe weather isn't expected as
favorable shear isn't in place and storms won't be able to grow and
strengthen. FROPA won't be through the CWA at the end of the period
but surface high pressure will be nudging into the region behind the
exiting front.
Overall, a stormy and rainy forecast period will exist. Highs for
today will be in the mid to upper-80s with Thursday's cold front
causing temperatures to dip into the upper-70s to low-80s for
Thursday. Overnight lows will start in the mid to upper-60s before
falling into the low 60s for Thursday night.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 418 AM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
Surface high pressure will build into the region for Friday and will
persist through much of the weekend. Accompanying surface high
pressure, more summer-like temperatures are expected through the
weekend and into early next week. Highs are forecast to start in the
mid-80s for Friday before climbing into the 90s for Saturday and
remaining in the low to mid-90s through the end of the forecast
period. Thunderstorms will try to develop Monday afternoon but
chances are extremely low and have been diminishing with each
forecast package.
In summary, surface high pressure ushers summertime to eastern
Kentucky. Highs will start in the mid-80s for Friday before starting
to climb into the low to mid-90s from Saturday through the rest of
the period. Overnight lows will remain in the upper-60s to
lower-70s.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT WED JUN 18 2025
At issuance time, MVFR was reported across much of the Commonwealth
with some breaks in the clouds leading to VFR in a few areas such
as KSYM initially. Some redevelopment of showers and storms has
already begun with these leading to brief IFR to the lower end of
MVFR. Overall, a trend toward VFR is anticipated with daytime
heating and mixing during the first 3 to 6 hours of the period
outside of convection where brief MVFR to IFR is anticipated.
Within stronger showers and storms gusts to 30KT is also possible.
A lull in the activity is expected for a couple of hours either
side of 00Z with MVFR prevailing. However, one or more lines or
areas of showers and storms should near the area by the 03Z to 06z
timeframe with reductions to MVFR and IFR as it passes and gusty
and erratic winds perhaps to 40KT in the strongest cells. An
overall trend to prevailing MVFR should occur for the bulk of the
area as the lower levels saturate and a cold front approaches
during the last 12 hours of the period. Additional showers and
storms are possible at times as well, especially before 12Z when
brief lowering of ceilings are possible along with some strong
and erratic gusts.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP
Source:
JKL issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 18, 2:03 PM EDT---------------
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