PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 1:46 PM CDT516
FXUS63 KPAH 091846
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
146 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Drier and slightly cooler weather the next few days with highs
slightly below average.
- Chances for showers and storms return to the forecast Thursday
afternoon through the weekend. Severe risk is uncertain at
this time.
- Warmer and muggier weather comes back Thursday onward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
The cold front has moved through the area this morning with
clearing and drying conditions behind it as the upper low spins
over WI and the broader, long wave trof starts to swing through
the region. As this system swings through over the next couple
of days, we can expect drier and slightly cooler weather with
highs slightly below average through Wednesday. As we enter
northwest flow aloft on the backside of this trof, we will see
the return of upper level haze from the Canadian wildfires.
Behind this trof we enter into a weak, split flow regime aloft with
an Atlantic subtropical high setting up to our southeast, and a
weak shortwave, southern stream trof to our southwest. Both of
these will contribute to the return of southerly flow through
the region and therefore warming temperatures and dewpoints from
Thursday onward. Conditions will be muggier Thursday onward as
dewpoints climb into the upper 60 to lower 70s. As this trof
approaches, we will see the return of daily shower and
thunderstorm chances to the area, starting Thursday afternoon.
Friday looks to be the best day overall, but with these chances
being mainly diurnally driven, Saturday afternoon and Sunday
afternoon look fairly active as well. It is still too early to
determine any severe threat with these storms.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025
A line of thunderstorms associated with a cold front has
largely passed east of the terminals, but a few light showers
linger at the KOWB site, bringing some MVFR ceilings. Otherwise,
VFR conditions and clearing skies are expected through much of
the TAF period.
Northwest flow aloft will allow for the return of Canadian
wildire smoke across the skies again, moving in overnight into
the day Tuesday. Currently not expecting reductions in surface
visibilities to the TAFs, but a light haze may be observed.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...WFO SGF
Source:
PAH issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 9, 1:46 PM CDT---------------
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