CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 3:41 PM EDT743
FXUS61 KCLE 101941
AFDCLE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
341 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will linger over the area into Thursday before a cold
front sags south across the area and stalls near central Ohio. This
nearly stationary boundary will linger across Ohio through the
weekend, possibly persisting into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough axis has shifted east of the area, allowing
for a surface high pressure to begin to build over the area this
afternoon. This high pressure will remain dominant through Wednesday
night, allowing for a period of dry conditions. The caveat to this
set-up with a broad upper level trough aloft across the Great Lakes
is that the general flow will usher in smoke associated with the
wildfires in Canada, This will result in hazy skies today and
Wednesday with even some visibilities being diminished during the
overnight hours as the atmosphere stabilizes. An Air Quality Alert
remains in effect for the greater Cleveland area through midnight
today. Any additional headlines for tomorrow will be issued this
evening is needed. On Wednesday, winds gain a more southwesterly
component, ushering in warmer air from the Gulf with highs expected
to climb into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight will drop
into the 50s before only stopping into the upper 50s to low 60s
Wednesday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned high pressure system will drift off the Mid-
Atlantic Coast on Thursday as a weak cold front associated with a
low over Quebec sags south across the area. Ahead of this boundary,
increasing moisture values associated with the persistent southwest
flow will allow for showers to begin to develop from north to south.
Initial support over a fairly zonal mid-level pattern will be
minimal and any precipitation chances will likely be driven by an
increase in CAPE across the area of generally between 1000-2000
J/kg. Models have slowed the onset of precipitation with this latest
run, now suggesting much of the shower activity remain nearest the
lakeshore on Thursday before shifting across the entire area Friday
as better upper level support moves into the area. Will need to
continue to monitor the progression of the frontal boundary as it is
expected to stall somewhere near the CWA and become a conduit for
additional heavy rainfall chances. Opted to populate the WPC QPF as
NBM was running on the very low end of totals. With this updated
forecast, storm total QPF through Friday night is generally between
0.25-0.4 inches. Local ponding on roadways will be possible where
showers are heaviest or persist, but overall flooding concerns in
this period remain minimal at this point. High temperatures through
the period will be in the low to mid 80s, with the mugginess
gradually returning. Overnight lows on Thursday night will drop into
the upper 50s to low 60s before becoming more mild Friday night in
the mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The shower potential looks to stick around through the bulk of the
long term period as the aforementioned nearly stationary boundary
continues to ebb and flow near the Ohio River Valley. There are
expected to be period of enhanced upper level support that will aid
in developing heavier showers, especially on Sunday into Monday when
a shortwave trough pushes east. At that time, modeled soundings
indicate the shift to a predominately skinny CAPE profile with
increased warm cloud layers and PWAT values between 1.5-1.75 inches.
The only element lacking to assist in heavy rain production is the
LLJ, but given the other support there is still high confidence that
the continued showers, possibly training at times, will cause
localized flooding concerns, including along rivers. WPC currently
has the entire area in a Day 5 Marginal ERO (Saturday into Sunday).
Expecting an additional ERO to be issued with the next round of
updates for the Sunday into Monday portion, but not confident as to
where. Models suggest the stalled boundary lingering into Tuesday
now, so kept the chance of PoPs until then. Aside from rainfall, not
anticipating much severe weather potential given the prolonged rain
at this point. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s
with overnight lows lingering in the mid 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions with scattered diurnal cumulus at around 5000 ft
AGL will persist through this afternoon before scattering out to
mostly clear to clear skies tonight. Some Canadian wildfire
smoke/haze may mix to the surface at some point during the TAF
period (specifically late tonight as winds become light), but
currently thinking that visibilities should remain above VFR.
Will continue to monitor forecast trends/observations and make
amendments as needed.
Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 6 to 12 knots with
gusts to 20 knots through early evening before winds diminish
near 00Z tonight. Generally expect light southwest winds
overnight before winds once again increase with the onset of
diurnal mixing late Wednesday morning.
Outlook...Mainly VFR expected Tuesday through Thursday. Non-VFR
may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms by late Friday
through the weekend with a weak frontal boundary.
&&
.MARINE...
Southwest winds will largely remain below 15 knots over the next
couple of days, however there may be a brief period of winds to
15 to 20 knots in the open waters of the eastern basin
Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening. As of now,
winds and waves in local nearshore zones should remain below
Small Craft Advisory criteria during this time. Winds will shift
to the northeast behind a cold front Thursday and generally
remain easterly through the weekend. Marine headlines are not
expected late this week through the weekend.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
NEAR TERM...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...15
MARINE...15
Source:
CLE issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) at Jun 10, 3:41 PM EDT---------------
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